A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XV

Oh my!! After all the hoopla of the past week, I am not seeing any major shifts. 

Before starting, I have dropped Texas and Florida from the battleground states, most frequently visited in past elections. 

For Texas, in 2020, Trump generally led in the polls with a poll margin of 1.1%, just before the election. He won with a 5.57% margin. He currently leads in the polls with a 10.1% advantage, compared to same time in 2020... of 2.9%.

Florida polls this time in 2020, had Biden with a 2.2% lead, and a 2.5% lead just before the election. Trump won the state with 3.36% as the margin. Trump currently has a 10.3% lead over Biden.

I hope that answers the why.

Looking at the remaining battleground states for current polling and 2020 polling...

This time in 2020, saw Biden leading in all these states... except Georgia. The actual vote margins were much thinner than polls, everywhere except Minnesota and Virginia.

Fast forward to current, and Biden only leads in Minnesota and Virginia, with Minnesota being very tight, when adjusting for polling errors of past years.

So despite the hoopla, not much has really changed, except Pennsylvania has eased back into Trump territory.

Still a long way to go, but a look back to 2020 and/or 2016, does not look favorable for a dramatic shift, imho.

Until next time...