A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XX

The title says part XX, but the campaign is nearing a "XXX" rating, imho.

The big news being there was a debate. I didn't watch the debate, but couldn't avoid the endless array of comments and memes, etc.

Any discussion of replacing Biden is about one year late. Even if he were to voluntarily drop out of the race, his replacement faces an even higher uphill battle. Remember, the Biden and democrat mantra was about saving democracy. After millions of votes for Biden in the primaries, it seems very undemocratic to force Biden out. At this stage, that is exactly how it would appear. Plus, there is the question of Harris.

Granted a lot has changed in one year. comparing the Biden of the State of the Union to the Biden of this week's debate... what will he be like in another 4 years? 

Of course, the likely beneficiary of Biden's lackluster performance, would be a 3rd party candidate... possibly Kennedy. Kennedy might improve in poll results, but will not threaten to capture any electoral votes, imho. 

I am reminded of 1988. I was so disenchanted with the democrats on the primary ballot, I voted for Jesse Jackson in protest. While I cannot recall being polled before the general election, I likely would have stated Ron Paul. Of course, the day of the election... I voted for Dukakis. That is why I am suspicious of any numbers related to Kennedy.

There has not been any meaningful polls conducted after the debate, to this point (6-28-2024). Therefore the current tabulations do not reflect any debate shifts in opinion.

The race is still tight on the national level, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden at 44.2% to 43.9%. 538 has Trump with a 0.2% lead at 41.1% to 40.9%.

4 years ago, Biden was leading in the polls with 51.1% to  Trump's 41.5%. Of course, Electoral Votes are the ones that really matter. As an example, in 2016 Clinton had 2.8 million votes more than Trump. That should settle the idea of republic v democracy at the national level. Of course, we live in a rather ignorant country.

Polls may indicate some shifting by the next time I report, on 7-7.