Warning... a very long post!
Note: This is data collection and analysis, as it stands right now. Granted, yesterday's events may alter this data in the future, but that is for the future to decide.
As of this writing, Biden is still in the race. He doesn't seem to be really slipping in the polls. There is still a chance that he could win enough electoral votes. How??
The democratic party is running on a save democracy campaign. As such they are trying to save democracy by preventing 3rd party candidates, such as Robert Kennedy Jr., from getting on the ballot in so called battleground states. As of this writing, he has made it on the ballot of several states, but the battleground states, are few, and are highlighted in yellow.
All of these states are polled as if 3rd parties are on the ballot, including RFK Jr. The Democrat strategy being that 3rd parties pulling support away from Biden moreso, than they are from Trump.
Further, if these 3rd party candidates are not on the November ballot, then those voters will fall back into line for either Biden or Trump, and the belief being, this will benefit Biden much more than Trump.
So the defenders of democracy are furiously eroding any attempts at democracy, or so it seems.
If they succeed, the race really tightens up, from an electoral count point of view, as in toss-up.
It has made it into the mainstream media, but not really on the evening news. Apparently, it is very undemocratic to interfere with the democrats. /s
Nationally, the polls in those battleground states still show Biden in a precarious position. The problem is down the ballot. It is one thing, as a democrat from [insert district] with a tight election, to paint the republican opponent as being a Trump advocate. Quite another to pledge allegiance to Biden, which can and will be used against said democrat... endlessly.
The current polling comparison, which does omit 3rd party numbers.
A state such as Arizona, does have 3rd parties on the ballot. So the likelihood of a Trump victory in that state remains fairly strong.
However a seemingly safe state such as Georgia, without the 3rd party option could possibly edge into toss-up or even Biden, given the 8.1% polling for Kennedy.
Maine would likely move back into 1 for Trump and 3 for Biden.
Nevada, which seems to be in the Trump camp, would narrow, but still be in the Trump camp, considering Kennedy's 8.9% polling.
North Carolina, with Kennedy at 8.4%, could become toss-up.
Pennsylvania, with Kennedy at 8.3%, would almost certainly be in the Biden camp, but still in toss-up range.
Virginia, would almost certainly... moved back solidly, into the Biden Camp.
Wisconsin is at 7.5% polling for Kennedy, and would throw the state into the toss-up category.
If Kennedy and other 3rd parties are on the ballot in all the battleground states, the Trump lead of 301~195 in electoral votes over Biden seems quite plausible, with 270 being the magic number.
However, as it stands right now on ballot availability, the Trump lead narrows to 242~207, over Biden.
Hence the "save democracy" campaign, while simultaneously obstructing democracy.
Finally, a word about pollsters. If pollster A, interviews 1000 people and states one candidate leads, by a certain number of points... when they do their next set of interviews, is it the same 1000 people, a different group of people, or a mix. Does pollster B, interview the same group of people, etc.
The results of one poll, does not provide an accurate gauge. Several polls together might give a clearer picture. Then there is the accuracy of such polls, compared to real election results.
So, there have not been a lot of state level polls to gauge which direction the race is going... post debate. So beware of polls saying this candidate is gaining or losing ground. Still too early. Maybe by end of July, there will be enough data. But who knows what will happen in the next 17 days, let alone the final 114 days before election.
This was way too long a post. Gotta cut back!!
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