Sunday, August 4, 2024

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 4th Edition

It has been said that opinions are like a$$holes... everyone has one. The race has tightened, so pucker up!


Overall, Harris has taken the lead in national polling and the Electoral Vote count has tightened. Last week had the Trump count at 267, with Harris at 209.

It should be noted that polling data is severely lacking from non battleground states, as well as some battleground states. Realistically, only polling that began on or after 7-22, is considered. 54 polls of 15 states during that period, with 41 of those spread across just a handful of battleground states.

  • Arizona - 5
  • Georgia - 7
  • California -2
  • Florida -2
  • Michigan -7
  • Maine - 1
  • Minnesota - 3
  • North Carolina -2
  • New Hampshire -3
  • Nevada - 3
  • Ohio - 1
  • Oregon -1
  • Pennsylvania -11
  • Washington -1
  • Wisconsin - 5
So a lot of wiggle room, although the race still favors Trump... as the path to a victory is wider than Harris' path. 
As for a debate, I suspect the Harris campaign is giddy with the recent surge in support, but as time wears on, the need for a debate will become clearer. Attempting to hijack what was billed as a Biden v Trump, and magically appear as a Harris v Trump debate... is not as easy as forcing Biden to drop out, imho.

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