The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump with 235 to 213 for Harris. The toss-ups are now at 90. The latter being Wisconsin narrowly sliding into toss-up range.
Throwing the toss-ups into the mix, results in Trump 312:226 Harris.
Red TU (toss-up) means leaning republican, although within the MOE (margin of error). Blue TU means leaning democrat, within the margin of error.
The margin of error is based on weighted MOEs of published polls. Which widened this past week.
The ERR, is a weighted calculation based on error rate of polls versus election results, discounting their MOE for the past 4 presidential election cycles, where available. The ERR is also based on the minimum error rate, as well.
I have previously discussed some of the potential reasons for such rates of error.
The oddity of some states with a much higher rate of error from the same pollster, still escapes me. A pollster can nearly predict Georgia with accuracy, but the same pollster completely miss the mark in Wisconsin.
The data is based on 60 polls, dated from July 25th, to August 9th. Not all states and districts have been polled since the upheaval in the race, but there is recognition of some blue states staying blue, as well as some red states staying red.
- AZ - 6
- CA - 1
- FL - 2
- GA - 6
- MI - 7
- MN - 1
- MT - 1
- NC - 4
- NH - 1
- NM - 1
- NY - 1
- OH - 1
- OR - 1
- PA - 13
- WA - 1
- WI - 8
Only 7 of these states, with 47 polls, currently fall into battleground status, out the 11 represented in the chart.
More polls can be expected in the coming week, but will likely be heavily tilted towards the so called battleground states.Remember when Florida, Iowa and Texas were considered battleground states? Remember when Ohio was considered a bellwether state? Interesting terminology, that a wether was a castrated male sheep/goat of a flock, with a bell hung around its neck to lead the flock. Somehow, it does sound appropriate for elections! I digress!
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