A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.
The GDP exceeded forecasts, but not really by that much. It was just as much about the trade and services deficit, as was the first quarter negative.
Personal Income and outlays was mostly positive. Here is the July Report card, which includes several variables.
A lot of pink, which is inflation heating up, but oddly... the PPI seems to be slipping. So maybe inflation is cooling.
Also, of note... the report card was not updated to PCE revisions for prior months.
Here is the latest...
Here was previous month, with revisions highlighted...
There are always some revisions of Government numbers, but the past few years have been quite noticeable, imo. More on my opinion later.
The petroleum report continues to astound me, as U.S. consumption is well below last year.
OPINION time:
The firing of a government official in charge of employment numbers caused great gnashing of teeth. I have a different view than some of the current pundits.
Those employment numbers have been suspect for some time. The past few years have seen monthly reports heralding better than expected hiring, with hardly any mention of prior months downward revisions.
The aforementioned was a near monthly occurrence, with even a massive one time downward revision for several months prior... again without media comment. It was very hard to ignore the possibility of political intervention. And if not political intervention... then very lackluster data collection, of which improvement is much needed.
I should probably mention that many reports from the government are in constant revision stage. Contrary to public opinion... I consider the inflation reports to be the most accurate and reliable. The employment numbers being the least reliable. The rest fall in between those two, imo.
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