Another Look at C.O.L.A.

 

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Back in August I stated... somewhere between 8.6% ~ 9.0%. Clearly, a revision has taken place. Largely due to the continued drop in gasoline. 

If you remember the July CPI report, it stated the -7.7% gasoline number held off all the price increases in everything else. August is over and I am betting the August CPI will be -10% for gasoline. 

Of course, the C.O.L.A. is based on CPI-W, which slipped -0.1% in July and was 9.1% over the year.  -10% in gasoline would in theory... create an even lower number than -0.1%. Granted, the other stuff may be accelerating inflation wise, but I am not so sure about that. 

In any case, I suspect the CPI-W will be in the range as noted and the monthly change will be -0.3%~0.5%.

That would be stellar, except it is only gasoline and many other things like food, electricity, and heating bills are rising... going into that time of year. A lump of coal might be a welcome gift, come Christmas. (Hey, everything else has gone topsy turvy... why not?)

For the record, the C.O.L.A. announced in fall 1981 for 1982 year was 11.4%. The fall of 1982 announcement for year 1983 was 7.4%. This year's announcement should be between those two numbers.

And for the first time in a long while, there should not be much of an increase in Medicare B premiums. Mostly because we were over charged last year, but still, taking them at their word of that drug being half of last year's rise, and then they found out that drug was half the original price... we end up back to where we currently are for next year. That $60 we got over charged this year will be metered back to us this coming year.