The BLS report was released this morning and it was a surprise. (historical releases) It came in substantially under the forecast by everyone.
My forecast from last month...
Oh yeah... next month CPI at 8.1%~8.2%, with m/m of +0.8%.
As you know by now...
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Of course, just as their is a silver lining inside every dark cloud, there can be a dark lining inside a silver cloud. Such as the month over month of July, at -0.01%; August at -0.04%; September at +0.22%; and this report (October) at +0.41%. Still not bad.
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My month over month was +0.08% and annual at 7.41% after last month's +0.33% mom and annual at 8.08%. For me, food somewhat decreased and medical stayed mostly flat.
Hourly earnings have still not recover to pre-pandemic levels. Which is a nice way of saying wage inflation has not kept up with the CPI. Real Earnings
I over estimated inflation for October, so here is hoping I over shoot in November. Range of 7.6%~7.9%. Sure things are moderating, but can we count on further reductions in Electricity, Utility (piped) gas service, apparel, Used cars and trucks, and Medical Care services?
Am I an optimist, pessimist, or realist?
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