Cooking With Natural Gas Feb 9 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday.

Natural Gas storage is still within 5 year range for the USA.

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There was quite a drop in this last reporting period, but still remains in good shape on the 5 year scale.

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As for pricing, the Northeast and West Coast saw significant drops in prices, as outlined in the report. Generally speaking, the prices in the USA fell back to seasonal norms of 2 years ago. 

The situation in Europe has seen prices fall dramatically, but still quite elevated... compared to 2 years ago. 

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In any event, the winter has been mostly mild and translated into less than expected drawdowns. HOWEVER, no one can forecast next winter's weather, so expect some upward movement in Natural Gas prices... come mid summer. 

Gasoline consumption through week of 2-03-2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were down 5.6¢ this week, to $3.445. A year ago, the price was $3.49.

Not sure how long this will last, although inventories are up and refinery output did slightly increase.

The however... is right on cue, as the seasonal consumption is edging up. (This is a four week moving average). It is -1.3% below one year ago levels. 

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If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st, stands at 88.8M barrels. If you saw last week's report, that is down 300K barrels. Somehow, I doubt that continues, although economic conditions might keep it downward in trajectory.

My completely ignorant prediction is... pump prices will be lower by this time next week. I won't go any further. 

Gasoline, Crude and Distillate Inventories - FEB-08-23

 Today's EIA.gov report. 

Crude stocks went up +2.4M barrels, from last week; Distillates up 2.9M Barrels; and Gasoline up 5M barrels. 

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WTI at $78.46, compared to $77.20, one week ago, and $87.90 a year ago. 

Refinery output slightly increased on this report, but still below one year ago levels. 

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 465.3M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. This week's report marks two consecutive weeks with net deficit of import/export. 6.1M barrels to be precise.

Overall, crude stocks are quite healthy, compared to this time last year (4th highest), also being in the upper 5 year range and the highest since June 2021.

So what could go wrong?

Gasoline consumption through week of 1-27-2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were up 2¢ this week, to $3.50. A year ago, the price was $3.38. There was a bit of good news, as prices seem to have plateaued. 

Not sure how long that will last, although inventories are up and refinery output did slightly increase.

The however... is right on cue, as the seasonal consumption is edging up. (This is a four week moving average).

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If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st, stands at 89.1M barrels. 3M of those barrels coming in the week leading up to this report. 

Gasoline, Crude and Distillate Inventories - FEB-1-23

Today's EIA.gov report. 

Crude stocks went up +4.1M barrels, from last week; Distillates up 2.3M Barrels; and Gasoline up 2.5M barrels. 

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WTI at $76.98, compared to $80.15, one week ago, and $86.69 a year ago. 

Refinery output slightly increased on this report, but still below one year ago levels. 

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 471M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. Oddly, this week's report was the first since then to show a slight import/export deficit. -238K to be precise.

Crude and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 25 2023

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +500K barrels, from last week; Distillates down -500K Barrels; and Gasoline up 1.7M barrels. 

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Refinery operation slid from 85.3% to 83.8% and word on the street is a lot of refinery maintenance is scheduled between now and May. 

Speaking of gasoline prices, according to the AAA, pump prices are up 12.2¢ from last week and 38.5¢ above the December 23rd low.

Gasoline consumption, on the other hand, hit two year lows...

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A part of me says the run up in gasoline prices is due for a pause. Of course, another part of me says... I don't know what I am talking about. 

Consider these...

• Refineries are scheduling maintenance and are below year ago operational levels, after some dramatic drops the past 4 weeks.
• Consumption has fallen to levels not seen since January, 2021.
• Pump prices have been on the rise.
• The typical lull in consumption is during this period of the year, with a typical February showing volume increases, extending into the summer months.
• Today's AAA price is $3.481 and one year ago was $3.335.
• Today's WTI was $80.31 and one year ago was $85.96.

It's hard to see a scenario, where pump prices fall from current levels. But, how much of a rise? Will we see national averages in the $4 range? Or $5 range?

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 19 2023

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +8.4M barrels, from last week; Distillates down -1.9M Barrels; and Gasoline up 3.5M barrels. The SPR slid a meager -1K barrels. 

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Consumption of gasoline continues its slide, with year over year down -4.9% and now down -1.3% from last year's lows. 

Refinery operation slipped to a 4 week average of 85.3%, from last week's 4 wk. average of 86.7%

National pump prices, according to AAA, have risen +10.7¢ from last week. Current futures pricing, indicates a bit of upward trend developing. even though domestic consumption is slipping and inventories rising. This against a backdrop of lower refinery operation. 

We are still exporting some hefty quantities of gasoline. 

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I have distillates in the title, although not much change overall, except in the East Coast numbers, which is more Central Atlantic.

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So far... so good!