Crude and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 25 2023

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +500K barrels, from last week; Distillates down -500K Barrels; and Gasoline up 1.7M barrels. 

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Refinery operation slid from 85.3% to 83.8% and word on the street is a lot of refinery maintenance is scheduled between now and May. 

Speaking of gasoline prices, according to the AAA, pump prices are up 12.2¢ from last week and 38.5¢ above the December 23rd low.

Gasoline consumption, on the other hand, hit two year lows...

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A part of me says the run up in gasoline prices is due for a pause. Of course, another part of me says... I don't know what I am talking about. 

Consider these...

• Refineries are scheduling maintenance and are below year ago operational levels, after some dramatic drops the past 4 weeks.
• Consumption has fallen to levels not seen since January, 2021.
• Pump prices have been on the rise.
• The typical lull in consumption is during this period of the year, with a typical February showing volume increases, extending into the summer months.
• Today's AAA price is $3.481 and one year ago was $3.335.
• Today's WTI was $80.31 and one year ago was $85.96.

It's hard to see a scenario, where pump prices fall from current levels. But, how much of a rise? Will we see national averages in the $4 range? Or $5 range?