A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XI

I said I would not post another election article, unless there were changes. I guess I lied.

The national polls continue to be tight, with a slight edge to republicans. Late in 2016, it was a 4 point lead for Clinton and resulted in a 2 point lead in actual votes. 2020 saw a significant lead of about 9 points for Biden, which ended with a 4.5 point vote lead for Biden.

Of course the polls were wrong in each case. Polls seem to vary in accuracy from state to state. It could be that down ballots affected the actual vote vs polls. A dem voter in a deep red state may have seen nothing of significance on the down ballot and opted to avoid voting. 

Similarly, a weak down ballot might have discourage a dem voter from going to the polls, when they felt assured of victory for their candidate.

There are many reasons for polls not fully reflecting the actual votes. Some voter2 might be hesitant to provide their real intentions, due to a number of factors.

In any case, some states polls have been reflective of eventual outcomes. The VAR (variance) in the above chart indicates the difference between polls and outcomes. Those numbers hold largely true back to the 2000 election.

Arizona would be an example of a state that has very accurate polls... historically. Why? I don't know. The actual poll numbers might not reflect the actual vote tally, BUT the variance is undeniable. Arizona is almost always in the very accurate range, with the variance near zero.

Wisconsin is on the other end of the spectrum, with a red 6.5% variance. Meaning the margin of eventual tally is favorable to republicans by 6.5%. Thus a poll lead of 4.4% for republicans... becomes a very hard lean in favor of republicans.

When all is said and done, the current projected EV tally is REP-293, DEM-216, and TU-29, with the TUs favoring the REP.

There are 248 days until judgement day. A lot can change in that length of time... AND a lot needs to change!

Once again, I will attempt to avoid futher commenting until something does change.

Wish me luck!

Review of January 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary...

The downward shift in inflation continues across the board, with the exception of my price index, which is more about healthcare than any other weightings.

There were modest revisions in the PCE report, which are highlighted in Red.

I have made much of government spending on the GDP, but historically... not so abnormal (all charts from 2000Q1 onward...

A bit grainy in the upload, but trends are evident. The worrying factor is the trade deficit, while showing a bit of improvement the past few months, is still staggering compared to 10 years ago.

Bored silly, so will leave it there. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 28th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Upward movement in consumption continues...

Pump prices are beginning to drift upward...

Refinery levels continue to ease for a 4 week running average.

Crude inventories rose +4.2M barrels; distillates down -510K barrels; gasoline down -2.9M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is $22.91 per barrel, with $12.01 coming from distillate and $10.89 from gasoline. 

Those figures are down compared to last week. It is notable the drop in the diesel portion, which would suggest lessening demand, which is also seen in a slight downward trajectory in pump prices, as well as a slight decrease in refinery output, despite higher crude pricing.

Gasoline pump prices are edging up, which can be reflected in upward crude prices, lessening refinery operation, etc. 

The relationship between diesel and gasoline should not be overlooked.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- February, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of December data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The rates are indeed about the same across this spectrum.

However, it was NOT always the same, and the reasons for that are different, despite the gullible people fawning over, and blindly following their particular political puppeteer.

Done for this month.

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 22nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Indicators have aligned to suggest upward movement in consumption.

Pump prices have generally stabilized, but I would suggest an upward movement into the $3.50ish range. Very similar to early spring of last year, imho.

Refinery operation continues to ease off, according to the latest 4 wk average.

Crude inventories rose +3.5M barrels; distillates down -4.0M barrels; gasoline down -293K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added the distillate/diesel category to reflect the volumes + percentages. Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is $24.83 per barrel, with $12.91 coming from distillate and $11.91 from gasoline. 

All those numbers are down from previous week.

That's all for now. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part X

The polls have altered the landscape, ever so slightly. While there have been several polls, none really changed much, except for Nevada, back on January 11.

The average in Nevada for Republican candidate remained about the same, there was erosion on the Democrat side. As a result, the state is now has a very slight Republican tendency.

As such the EVs are 293(R); 216(D); and 29(TU).

There are 261 days until the election. I will take another break from this spectacle and check things out in a couple of weeks. If no changes, then no commentary. 

My electricity bills over time (February, 2024 Edition)

Yep, time for the review of electricity consumption... MINE!

The year over year rolling 12 month has seen a decline of -5.8%. HOWEVER... December of 2022 was frigid, at least compared to December of this year. January had the heat running much more, up +10.6% over December.. Right now, February is looking good... so far.