Review of May 2024 data, 1Q GDP revisions, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers are of concern... going forward.

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The GDP for 2024Q1 was revised ever so slightly upward to 1.4% annualized. Only time will tell if that gets revised on September 26th.

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 26th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +4.5¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -7.9¢, or -2.2%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, by just -2.4%.

Inventories were mixed, with crude inventory up 3.6M barrels; Distillates down 377K barrels; Gasoline rose 2.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +9.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.3M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen from last week's $22.87, to $26.37. Gasoline at $15.93 from last week's $13.95. Distillates to $10.44, compared to last week's $9.65.

All things considered, the outlook for pump prices going any lower is not very likely. In fact, the potential for a very slight rise is in the offing. Which is odd, given the lowering of consumption and the days supply rising. 

Still... nothing extreme in the current forecast, imho.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- June, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of May data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following...

Despite the similarities, the timeframe has a considerable difference.

We must remember that inflation in the USA was transitory, until the rest caught up. 

 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIX

The race is still tight on the national level, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden at 44.0% to 43.9%. 538 has Biden with a 0.3% lead at 40.8% to 40.5%.

Still not a meteoric rise for Biden at this juncture, compared to this time, 4 years ago, which had Biden with 51.0% to  Trump's 41.7%. Of course, Electoral Votes are the ones that really matter. As an example, in 2016 Clinton had 2.8 million votes more than Trump. That should settle the idea of republic v democracy at the national level. Of course, we live in a rather ignorant country.

Michigan and Wisconsin edge back out of the margin of error territory... in favor of Trump. Georgia eased to near margin of error territory, but still favors Trump.

The result being 293 EVs for Trump; 216 EVs for Biden; and 29 EVs still in toss-up territory, with 135 days to go.

I realize that Fox news had a poll with Biden holding a slightly bigger lead national lead, but I really struggled to understand why it got so much attention from the "mainstream" media. That "mainstream" media that proclaims Fox as misinformation/disinformation... is suddenly accurate. 

C'mon man!!

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline rose +0.1¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -12.2¢, or -3.4%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, by just -0.9%.

Inventories fell across the board, with crude inventory down -2.5M barrels; Distillates down 1.7M barrels; Gasoline down -2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +153K barrels, with the SPR rising +386K.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen from last week's $23.60, to $22.87. Gasoline at $13.95 from last week's $13.36. Distillates to $9.65, compared to last week's $9.51.

All things considered, the outlook for pump prices going any lower is not likely. With refinery operation at levels not seen in 2 years, and before that... 2018. Not sure they can squeeze any more out, if demand were to rise further. With the 4th coming up... a rise in pump prices is not out of the question.

Advance Retail Sales Report- June18, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $703.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above May 2023. Total sales for the March 2024 through May 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2024 to April 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Wow... even with the typical downward revisions of previous months... the number barely moves upward.

When adjusted for inflation...

For sake of comparison, the current inflation adjusted retail sales is the lowest since February, 2021.

The biggest losers on year to year and monthly are home furnishings, building material and garden supplies. 

Mail order stores continue to gain, along with miscellaneous stores.

It was not a great report, but not a disaster. More in the lines of stagnant, imho. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVIII

The race is further tightening on the national level, with Trump edge of 0.2% from two weeks ago, now knotted up at 43.9% each or very slight Biden advantage, at 43.898%, with Trump at 43.894%. This is tighter than fivethirtyeight, which has the Trump edge a +1.1%.

Kennedy is really closing the gap with Biden and Trump... in the unfavorable category. So maybe familiarity really does breed contempt. /s

The current comparison, to same time four years ago...

There is a dramatic drop off from 2020's polling to today's polling. That is reflected in the electoral votes, as well... which has also tightened, but maybe not as much as one would think.

The Trump total of 268, is down from 297 of two weeks ago. Biden's 219 remains the same. Both Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10) eased into the margin of error range, although still giving Trump an edge.

I am not buying into the notion of some pollsters, that Trump is now leading in Maine and Virginia being toss-up. Also, the idea of Florida being in play... is a bit of fantasy, imho.

There will be many more polls to come, so things can change. Whether this tightening is a result of recent events... remains to be seen.

Oddly, 3rd party activities may be distorting the polling numbers. It is quite one thing to tell a pollster you are voting for a 3rd party candidate... and quite another to actually go into the booth and do just that.

From the outset of this series, I made mention of the tendency of Trump to underperform in polls from previous years, compared to actual voting results. I also, gave my rationale as to why. 

My point, and opinion being... Kennedy supporters are likely finding both Biden and Trump as objectionable. But when it comes time to vote, and the realization that Kennedy cannot win any state under the electoral system... will they then vote for the least objectionable of Biden and Trump. As mentioned earlier... Kennedy's unfavorable ratings are in line with both Biden and Trump. 

Is "none of the above" going to be on the ballot?

It is a bit of fun to watch this all unfold, with 142 days to go.