A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVIII

The race is further tightening on the national level, with Trump edge of 0.2% from two weeks ago, now knotted up at 43.9% each or very slight Biden advantage, at 43.898%, with Trump at 43.894%. This is tighter than fivethirtyeight, which has the Trump edge a +1.1%.

Kennedy is really closing the gap with Biden and Trump... in the unfavorable category. So maybe familiarity really does breed contempt. /s

The current comparison, to same time four years ago...

There is a dramatic drop off from 2020's polling to today's polling. That is reflected in the electoral votes, as well... which has also tightened, but maybe not as much as one would think.

The Trump total of 268, is down from 297 of two weeks ago. Biden's 219 remains the same. Both Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10) eased into the margin of error range, although still giving Trump an edge.

I am not buying into the notion of some pollsters, that Trump is now leading in Maine and Virginia being toss-up. Also, the idea of Florida being in play... is a bit of fantasy, imho.

There will be many more polls to come, so things can change. Whether this tightening is a result of recent events... remains to be seen.

Oddly, 3rd party activities may be distorting the polling numbers. It is quite one thing to tell a pollster you are voting for a 3rd party candidate... and quite another to actually go into the booth and do just that.

From the outset of this series, I made mention of the tendency of Trump to underperform in polls from previous years, compared to actual voting results. I also, gave my rationale as to why. 

My point, and opinion being... Kennedy supporters are likely finding both Biden and Trump as objectionable. But when it comes time to vote, and the realization that Kennedy cannot win any state under the electoral system... will they then vote for the least objectionable of Biden and Trump. As mentioned earlier... Kennedy's unfavorable ratings are in line with both Biden and Trump. 

Is "none of the above" going to be on the ballot?

It is a bit of fun to watch this all unfold, with 142 days to go.