This week's full report.
Gasoline fell -2.5¢ for the week, and remains below year ago levels, by -5.3¢, or -1.5%. Days supply jumped to 25.5, from 24.7. For perspective... last year was 23.9.
This week's full report.
Gasoline fell -2.5¢ for the week, and remains below year ago levels, by -5.3¢, or -1.5%. Days supply jumped to 25.5, from 24.7. For perspective... last year was 23.9.
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, June Report.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2023. Total sales for the April 2024 through June 2024 period were up 2.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).
My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.
Warning... a very long post!
Note: This is data collection and analysis, as it stands right now. Granted, yesterday's events may alter this data in the future, but that is for the future to decide.
As of this writing, Biden is still in the race. He doesn't seem to be really slipping in the polls. There is still a chance that he could win enough electoral votes. How??
The democratic party is running on a save democracy campaign. As such they are trying to save democracy by preventing 3rd party candidates, such as Robert Kennedy Jr., from getting on the ballot in so called battleground states. As of this writing, he has made it on the ballot of several states, but the battleground states, are few, and are highlighted in yellow.
The BLS has released the July, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of June. (historical releases)
The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. [emphasis added]
Product detail: Over 60 percent of the June decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 5.8-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for processed poultry, residential electric power, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and fresh and dry vegetables also moved lower. Conversely, prices for chicken eggs increased 55.4 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas and for aluminum base scrap also advanced.
On to the Real Earnings.
Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.18 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted.
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for gasoline fell 3.8 percent in June, after declining 3.6 percent in May, more than offsetting an increase in shelter. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, as it did the preceding month. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in June. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. [emphasis added]
A lot of chatter about this being the first negative in 4 years and means rate cuts are an almost certainty.
A bit of reality... From the December 2022 report.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes.
For the record, the FED increased rates 4 times by 25 basis points each , starting on 2-1-2023, 3-22-2023, 5-3-2023, and 7-26-2023.
That is in no way suggesting further rate hikes, but should dampen the enthusiasm, given a couple of key phrases in the CPI release. The drop in gasoline prices have probably hit bottom and could inch up in July. To put it in perspective, that -0.1% adjusted would have been more like +0.1% adjusted. That 0.0% unadjusted, would have been +0.2% unadjusted.
Likely, the month to month for July, will indicate something like +0.2% ~ +0.3%, when kicking in the anticipated increase in food, especially the food away from home.
Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...
With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [ Note, the USA(EU method) is direct...