This Week in Petroleum Summary July 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline increased +0.1¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -8.3¢, or -2.3%. Days supply fell to 24.5, from 25.5. For perspective... last year was 24.1.

Inventories were down across the board, with crude down -3.7M barrels; Distillates down -2.8M barrels; Gasoline down -5.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -3.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +690K barrels.

Despite the across the board draw, the total products is still ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has jumped up from last week's $22.35, to $25.05. Gasoline at $14.91 from last week's $13.56. Distillates to $10.13, compared to last week's $8.79.

While the spread moved upward, inventories fell, and consumption seems to have eased upward. A sure sign of higher pump prices, except it also indicates pump prices in a narrow band.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 20th Edition

Contrary to reports, Biden could still possibly win in November, although his paths to success... are limited.

My own inexpert analysis, indicates a slight narrowing of national polls to +0.3 points. 538 has the Trump lead widening to +3.2 points from last week's +1.9. Interestingly, the Trump increase seems to be at the expense of Kennedy. This may be due to changing polling methods.

Generally, polls do nationwide, with a full slate of candidates, then extrapolate the data to meet the state specific. However, with the focus on "battleground" states, many polls are becoming state specific. Therefore, the state specific poll will match with state ballot. In many of the "battleground" states, Kennedy is not on the ballot, therefore, is not on the poll. 

In any case, Kennedy's polling has slipped from the usual 9.5%~10.5%, into the 8.6% range. That falloff, does match the Trump increase.

As for the nonsense of the democrats putting Kennedy on their ticket and easily beating Trump... that is overlooking the animosity of the dems regarding Kennedy. It would be a toss-up as to which they dislike more... Trump or Kennedy.

As stated, not much real change in the national numbers. For the state level...

Again, not much movement. At this point, Trump has the edge on Electoral votes. However, the Kennedy conundrum, still persists.

The states highlighted in yellow have given ballot access to Kennedy. So the question remains... if Kennedy is not on the ballot, which candidate will they then choose... or leave the ballot blanks.

Even with this conundrum, the edge goes to Trump, at 263~197. Several states, now leaning favorably to Trump, could ease back into toss-up, if Kennedy does not make the ballot... in those states.

It's fun to watch, and who knows that will happen this upcoming week. I might have to start all over from scratch. 

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- July, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following...

Despite the current similarities, the timeframe has a considerable difference.

There are multiple factors involved in sorting out the variances in when inflation started.

• Clogged ocean shipping containers in wrong places.
• Massive stimulus
• Vaccine rollout
• Ukraine Invasion
• Perception of definite strikes at ports for July, 2022
• Timing of rate hikes

As for political considerations, the stimulus rollout could be considered political and there is whether the Ukraine invasion would have taken place. All other items would likely have occurred, imho.

In any case, the inflation situation has largely abated, so it is time to give this type of review... a rest.

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 17th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline fell -2.5¢ for the week, and remains below year ago levels, by -5.3¢, or -1.5%. Days supply jumped to 25.5, from 24.7. For perspective... last year was 23.9.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down -4.9M barrels; Distillates up +3.5M barrels; Gasoline rose +3.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +11.1M barrels, with the SPR rising +650K barrels.

So despite the crude draw, the crude plus refined products and SPR was up strong.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased further from last week's $23.36, to $22.35. Gasoline at $13.56 from last week's $13.97. Distillates to $8.79, compared to last week's $9.39.

That downward push does bode well for slightly more easing at the pump.

Advance Retail Sales Report- July 16, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, June Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2023. Total sales for the April 2024 through June 2024 period were up 2.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Hard to keep up with the revisions, but here they are (click, to enlarge)...

It doesn't take much effort to see before revisions, the nominal figure is akin to the advance of September, 2023. 

However, when adjusted for inflation...

The quantity of goods is flat. Looking at the 12 month moving average, based on inflation adjustments... current is below, and has been for all of 2024.

Not sure where the good news, regarding growth... is to be found. Granted, it has not fallen off a cliff, but "real" growth is not to be found in this report, imho.

There were winners on the month and year, highlighted in green, with losers in red, with all numbers in nominal dollars (thousands).

Clearly, gasoline stations would show a nominal dollar drop, with decrease in pump prices. Food services and drinking places continues to increase.

My electricity bills over time (July, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The July bill came in much higher than last year. +23.8% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

The rolling average is down -4.8% from one year ago. However, I am not sure that will last, as it has been hot AND dry in my neck of the woods. 

Hopefully, a cool spell will ease into the forecast. 

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 14th Edition

Warning... a very long post!

Note: This is data collection and analysis, as it stands right now. Granted, yesterday's events may alter this data in the future, but that is for the future to decide. 

As of this writing, Biden is still in the race. He doesn't seem to be really slipping in the polls. There is still a chance that he could win enough electoral votes. How??

The democratic party is running on a save democracy campaign. As such they are trying to save democracy by preventing 3rd party candidates, such as Robert Kennedy Jr., from getting on the ballot in so called battleground states. As of this writing, he has made it on the ballot of several states, but the battleground states, are few, and are highlighted in yellow. 

All of these states are polled as if 3rd parties are on the ballot, including RFK Jr. The Democrat strategy being that 3rd parties pulling support away from Biden moreso, than they are from Trump. 

Further, if these 3rd party candidates are not on the November ballot, then those voters will fall back into line for either Biden or Trump, and the belief being, this will benefit Biden much more than Trump.

So the defenders of democracy are furiously eroding any attempts at democracy, or so it seems.

If they succeed, the race really tightens up, from an electoral count point of view, as in toss-up.

It has made it into the mainstream media, but not really on the evening news. Apparently, it is very undemocratic to interfere with the democrats. /s

Nationally, the polls in those battleground states still show Biden in a precarious position. The problem is down the ballot. It is one thing, as a democrat from [insert district] with a tight election, to paint the republican opponent as being a Trump advocate. Quite another to pledge allegiance to Biden, which can and will be used against said democrat... endlessly.

The current polling comparison, which does omit 3rd party numbers.

A state such as Arizona, does have 3rd parties on the ballot. So the likelihood of a Trump victory in that state remains fairly strong. 

However a seemingly safe state such as Georgia, without the 3rd party option could possibly edge into toss-up or even Biden, given the 8.1% polling for Kennedy.

Maine would likely move back into 1 for Trump and 3 for Biden.

Nevada, which seems to be in the Trump camp, would narrow, but still be in the Trump camp, considering Kennedy's 8.9% polling.

North Carolina, with Kennedy at 8.4%, could become toss-up.

Pennsylvania, with Kennedy at 8.3%, would almost certainly be in the Biden camp, but still in toss-up range.

Virginia, would almost certainly... moved back solidly, into the Biden Camp.

Wisconsin is at 7.5% polling for Kennedy, and would throw the state into the toss-up category.

If Kennedy and other 3rd parties are on the ballot in all the battleground states, the Trump lead of 301~195 in electoral votes over Biden seems quite plausible, with 270 being the magic number.

However, as it stands right now on ballot availability, the Trump lead narrows to 242~207, over Biden.

Hence the "save democracy" campaign, while simultaneously obstructing democracy.

Finally, a word about pollsters. If pollster A, interviews 1000 people and states one candidate leads, by a certain number of points... when they do their next set of interviews, is it the same 1000 people, a different group of people, or a mix. Does pollster B, interview the same group of people, etc.

The results of one poll, does not provide an accurate gauge. Several polls together might give a clearer picture. Then there is the accuracy of such polls, compared to real election results. 

So, there have not been a lot of state level polls to gauge which direction the race is going... post debate. So beware of polls saying this candidate is gaining or losing ground. Still too early. Maybe by end of July, there will be enough data. But who knows what will happen in the next 17 days, let alone the final 114 days before election.

This was way too long a post. Gotta cut back!!