2024 Presidential Election Update, September 14th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 61, with an edge still favoring Trump at 42 and Harris at 19. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 52 days to go. 

While Harris finally moved up on the electoral count, it was more of Virginia moving out of the Toss-up range in her favor. 

While nothing is firm until after the election... Trump seems to have a firmer grip on 245 EVs, with the following odds in a few other states.

• Pennsylvania - 19 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 89%
• Michigan - 16 EVS... Trump odds of winning - 86%
• Arizona - 11 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 80%
• Georgia - 16 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 69%

Those represent 62 EVs. Harris needs 3 of the 4, whereas Trump needs 2. 

Harris has whittled away at what was once a commanding Trump lead, but can that pace continue over the next 52 days? 

Now the question is whether I will continue to track all this, as my several of my files have become corrupted, and several attempts to restore them have failed. So do I go back to square 1?

PPI September 2024 release with August 2024 Data

The BLS has released the September 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of August.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and rose 0.2 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

The August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.

The report card continues to indicate easing of inflation. 

 

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -6.4¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -57.9¢, or -15.1%. Days supply edged up to 24.7. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days.

Inventories were up across the board, with crude up +833K barrels; Distillates up 2.3M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +9.2M barrels, with the SPR rising +279K barrels.

The total products is still +42.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slid further from last week's $15.60, to $15.39. Gasoline at $7.82 from last week's $7.61. Distillates to $7.57, compared to last week's $7.99.

With the overall spread easing, it is difficult to imagine the pump prices not edging lower, although Diesel may be nearing a bottom

I may be crazy, but the trend of -12¢~15¢ on pump prices, for gasoline and maybe -7¢ on diesel, continues. There is significant potential for pump prices to be under $3 by Christmas... or earlier.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - September 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.21 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $384.47, up from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.83. Up 2¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 331.36. Up 74¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - September 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.5 percent in August and was the main factor in the all items increase. The food index increased 0.1 percent in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. The index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent over the month, while the index for food at home was unchanged. The energy index fell 0.8 percent over the month, after being unchanged the preceding month.

The 2.53% is finally below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.7% Y/Y, but rose +0.1% on the month (I'm happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

So the likelihood of 2.5% is very real, with an outside potential for 2.4%. That 2.6% from last month's projection is very, very... not likely.

We'll see next month.

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 7th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 80, with an edge favoring Trump at 61 and Harris at 19. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 59 days to go.

Harris slipped in Georgia and held steady in Nevada. 538 has Harris with a +3.1 margin nationally, whereas I have Trump with a +0.4 lead.

It should be pointed out that Clinton was polling a +3.9 point lead nationally, just before the 2016 election. Although it should be pointed out that she lost the electoral count, due to less than 100K votes in selected states. Also, Trump lost the 2020 electoral count also, by less than 100K votes in selected states. An election that had Biden leading in the polls by +8.4 points. 

It is the electoral count that matters. AS of right now... Trump has the edge. 

Next week brings on a debate. Doubtful that the polls would include results from after the debates... for a couple of weeks. 

In a boring stage of the polling, imho. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 5th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.9¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -50.3¢, or -13.2%. Days supply edged up to 24.0. For perspective... last year was 23.8 days.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down sharply -6.9M barrels; Distillates down -371K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.82M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -6.2M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.8M barrels.

Despite the draws, the total products is still +44.4M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slid further from last week's $16.37, to $15.60. Gasoline at $7.61 from last week's $8.92. Distillates to $7.99, compared to last week's $7.45.

With the overall spread easing, it is difficult to imagine the pump prices not edging lower, although Diesel may be nearing a bottom

I may be crazy, but another -12¢~15¢ on pump prices, for gasoline and maybe -7¢ on diesel.