The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 80, with an edge favoring Trump at 61 and Harris at 19. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 59 days to go.
Harris slipped in Georgia and held steady in Nevada. 538 has Harris with a +3.1 margin nationally, whereas I have Trump with a +0.4 lead.
It should be pointed out that Clinton was polling a +3.9 point lead nationally, just before the 2016 election. Although it should be pointed out that she lost the electoral count, due to less than 100K votes in selected states. Also, Trump lost the 2020 electoral count also, by less than 100K votes in selected states. An election that had Biden leading in the polls by +8.4 points.
It is the electoral count that matters. AS of right now... Trump has the edge.
Next week brings on a debate. Doubtful that the polls would include results from after the debates... for a couple of weeks.
In a boring stage of the polling, imho.
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