U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 31, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today.

The Pacific Region is now slightly ahead of year ago numbers, but still below the 5 year average.

The South Central Region slipped below one year ago levels, but is still above 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Nothing dramatic taking place, so steady as she goes, would be the best description, imho.

Review of July data and the August PCE Release

Some ups and some down in the latest release from the BEA. (red revised down, green revised up).

Chained dollar disposable income was revised down for April and June, with a negative print on July.

However, the chained dollar PCE was revised down for March and May, with upward revisions in April and June. 

It seems evident that savings AND debt are currently driving the economy. How long that can last is the big question.

Then there is the matter of PCE Excluding Food & Energy. If the target is 2%, then there is a way to go, given the forecast for August is at 4%. Years ago, when the PCE ex food and energy was failing to achieve even 2%, there was discussion of moving the target to 4%. 

That hasn't happened, so how can it be expected for the FED to ease off the interest rates? 

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2023

We are now 28 months with the PCE ex food and energy above the 2% mark, and 17 months into the FED increasing rates. 10 months out, with the aforementioned halting its rise. 

The chart below indicates some problems still within the system. Last month had just one category in pink. 

We are at the end of August and its data will likely be similarly ugly. Let's hope for some relief in September. 

Quick Review of The GDP report 2Q-2023, 2nd estimate

The BEA released the 2nd estimate of 2Q-2023 GDP...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The updated estimates primarily reflected downward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to state and local government spending.

Here is a screenshot of the data page... 

Probably the most interesting thing is the GDI of +0.5%, which is the first positive, since 3rd Quarter of 2022.

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, August 30, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) slipped from last report's $3.845, to $3.827. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.844, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low.

It has edged upward, by 0.9¢ the past 3 days. The market is pointing toward a bit more upward movement, but that remains to be seen.

Consumption steadied at last week's pace, which is +2.3% above year ago level. In theory, consumption should begin to taper off in September. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - August 30 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks slid another -10.6M barrels, from last week, and is -3.4% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +0.4% above normal.

Distillates inventory rose +1.2M barrels; and Gasoline inventories slipped about -214K barrels. Distillates (-13%,-2.6%) and Gasoline (-3.2%, -1.4%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased another 600K barrels this past week. This is the 4th straight week for increases, which are the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $81.74, compared to $78.96 (+3.5%), one week ago, and $89.03, one year ago (-8.2%).

Refinery output slipped on a weekly basis, and is slightly above above year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 829.9M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped +11.8M barrels this past week. (Distillates account for approximately 77%.

Overall, crude stocks remain somewhat decnt, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 25.4, to last year's 25.5 days.

Me complaining about a curbside restaurant/grocery order #1.

I have frequently complained about curbside service from various local restaurants, and continously express my concerns via their surveys... to no avail.

So, here goes.

Cracker Barrel once again stiffed me on items missing from my order. I always tip 20% on curbside orders. 

Granted, I could unpack everything in the car and make sure it is all there, but... I would think an extra few seconds in ensuring the order is complete before the server exits the store, would be appropriate. Afterall, that 20% tip is easier money than actually waiting on a table.

That's my stupid opinion.

This is what I got stiffed today...

I should point out that grocery stores seem to be joining the omissions, but still charging.

A look at my electricity bills over time

I do odd things, one of which is monitoring my electric bills. 

Obviously, my electricity usage is based on weather, which does change from time to time. While the graph is based on actual payments based on month bill is due, I utilize a rolling 12 month average, to gauge year to year changes.

Currently that 12 month rolling average is +3.1% above year ago levels. I suspect it might be lower, as I altered the thermostat settings in December of 2022. I adjusted the nighttime heating settings from 68°F to 72°F, which would increase the usage in winter time. Daytime heat settings remained at 72°F.

Cooling settings remain at 76°F daytime and 72°F for nighttime.

Currently, the 2023 average is below last year, but that is with 4 more months of bills, which are generally higher than current average. Also, it should be noted that year over year... or base effects come into play, which tends to hide the overall increases. 

So what might seem like good news, still carries quite a bite on the budget. The CPI-U suggests that the average consumer spends about 2.754% of their expenses on electricity... or about $150 per month. 

While my average is significantly short of that dollar amount, percentage wise... my electricity expenses are well north of 2.754%.