The BLS report for December, Indicated a 7.0% yoy inflation rate with the month on month being 0.3% unadjusted of 0.5% after adjustments.
With this release comes a variety of other numbers...
I am at the 5.0% annual rate...
I had a better than expected outlook for my personal rate of inflation, but this continues to be due to medical costs rising at a much slower rate than everything else, AND at a slower rate than in recent years. I just cannot be so optimistic as to call this a long term trend.
I had previously forecast...December is likely to be between that 6.98% and 7.16%.
The likelihood of January's numbers falling between 7.04% and 7.40% are fairly high at this point. While there was joy in the easing of energy prices, not sure the rough patch of weather in the next 2 weeks will not negate some of that joy. For comparison... June 1982 was 7.06% and then February 1982 was 7.62% and January 1982 at 8.39%. I throw that out as we heard highest inflation in nearly 40 years for last month and again for this month. Also, for the record, that 7.62% (2-1982) was the lowest rate since June of 1978.
Also, beef prices are easing a bit, but Covid may mess up the work force in that category. In any case, the month to month changes will be the real guide going forward, as YOY increases might start to ease. Not that inflation is easing, but January 2021 saw inflation percolating and then lifting off in February.
Historically, the June 1982 YOY inflation was pegged at 7.06%, compared to last months 7.04%. From there it is February 1982's 7.62%. Next month's headline will be highest inflation in nearly 40 years.
On to Real Earnings...
Basically the report indicates wages are keeping up with inflation on month to month, but still below the recent peak of September.
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