Political Prognosticating

 

via GIPHY

It is important to stir the pot, as well as smoke it. Although I suspect a lot of pot has already been smoked.

Never the less, it is time for me to review the current state of the 2024 presidential election and to properly undertake that assignment, I must review a bit of history.

Throughout my lifetime, there were always those that were strictly far right or far left. A lot of us were caught in the middle. Generally speaking, we decided the election on which candidate was least objectionable. Somehow that seemed to change, going into the 2016 election. Granted, you might say it was earlier, but never was there such a hue and cry as after the 2016 election. Even the 2000 election was somewhat settled amicably. At the most, it was not long for those protesting to fall back into the shadows. If you say 2008 and the tea party, it hasn't really had an impact... other than to taint future republican candidates, and a renewed distaste for a certain democrat.

2016 was as much about not electing Clinton, as anything else. Trump won by 304-227-7 over Clinton. If Clinton had gotten 44,285 more votes in Pennsylvania, it would have been 284-247-7 for Trump. AND if Clinton had gotten 10,705 more votes in Michigan, it would have been 267-263-4 for Trump. AND if Clinton had gotten 22,749 more in votes in Wisconsin, it would have been 273-257-4 for Clinton. A total of 77,739. Granted Clinton had more popular votes, but the elections are decided by electoral votes. If 38,870 voters in those 3 states had voted the opposite... the results would have been different.

So 2020 was about not re-electing Trump. Biden won 306-232. If Trump had gotten 10,458 more votes in Arizona, it would have been 295-243 in favor of Biden. AND if Trump had gotten 11,780 more votes in Georgia, it would have been 279-259, still in favor of Biden. And if 20,683 more votes in Wisconsin had voted in favor of Trump... We would have deadlocked at 269-269. Which would have ended up in Congress, which would likely have resulted in Trump being re-elected, due to the structure of the Constitution surrounding such a matter. If 21,438 voters in those 3 states had voted opposite, the result would have been different.

So forget about the 7M popular vote difference in 2020 or the near 3M popular vote difference in 2016. It really only takes a small swing in critical areas to make a YUGE difference, imo.

Therefore 2024 will hinge on such small swings. There seems to be a lot of glee from the right about the "troubles" of Biden, which in turn means they think he can be beat in 2024 by any Republican. Therefore it would seem almost certain that Trump would take another whack at the Presidency. 

However, I don't think Biden will even attempt to run for re-election in 2024. Harris might give a try, but will fail miserably. That in itself would seem to sabotage the Trump candidacy. If anybody could beat Biden or Harris, then what would be the point of risking a repeat of 2020... when anybody would be better than Trump. 

Been there and done that.