A Cautionary Tale About Believing Everything You Read!

Very recently, I ran across an article posted to one of those social media sites I frequent.

I will not link to the article, but the gist was the average retirement income for those over 65 had fallen from $56,632 in 2019, to  $46,360 in 2020. The source for that data was the Census Bureau.

As the drop was so large, I decided to investigate further, rather than accept the analysis of a financial planner. 

It was a case of mixing apples and oranges, as the 2019 number was for the age group 65~74, while the 2020 number included everyone over 65.

I visited the Census Bureau website and downloaded the 2019 and 2020 data. Here is a snapshot of each...

2019...

2020...

Of course all this is 2019 with pre-Covid and 2020 with Covid. There is a drop in each category.

Overall, the picture looked like this for 2019...

And here is 2020...

I could go on about how the economy was still struggling to fully recover in 2020, as it had not met GDP output for end of 2019... in either real terms or nominal.

Not real sure why the apples to oranges comparison came about, but it serves to point out the need to carefully parse the underlying data... prior to jumping to conclusions and certainly before publishing as fact. 

End of the Month... April 2022 PCE, 2nd est. GDP, and Other Stuff.

 

The final results for April data is now in and it looks like a mixed bag. Sure the headline numbers are indicating deceleration of inflation, but there are still problem areas. The most important being my price index, which is increasing. I have highlighted some areas of acceleration of inflation. 

Remember that energy was flat for April and has risen in May, which comes out next month. The deceleration of inflation in overall CPI indicates a potential repeat of the April headline number. The core, which is without food and energy, indicates some moderation. We'll just have to wait. 

The Personal Income and Outlays for April came out and it isn't stellar in my opinion. Personal consumption expenditures were up 0.7% for the inflation adjusted month to month. The disposable personal income was flat on the inflation adjusted month to month. Credit cards anyone?

Somehow the concept of driving 120 mph on an ice covered road comes to mind, with a slight decrease in overall speed. Then the FED is slightly tapping the brakes. What could go wrong?

In other news, the 2nd release of the 1st Quarter GDP indicated a bit less than the Advance. I have read some comments about a potential negative 2nd quarter as meaning we are in a recession. WRONG! It is just a symptom. 2020 saw two quarters and no recession, as discussed by the gurus of such stuff. After debating most of 2008, it was finally decided that December of 2007, was the start of the great recession. The first back to back negative quarters were 3rd and 4th Quarter of 2008. So clearly more information than GDP numbers are a factor.

As for the 2nd quarter GDP, which will not be released until end of July... there is ample reason to believe it will not be negative. The trade numbers were a major hit to the 1st quarter GDP. The dollar has strengthened, which should reduce the deficit numbers, the inventory builds should be increasing, which is a plus for GDP, although troubling. The trade deficit should also be waning, due to a potential China slowdown.

So a positive number for GDP 2nd Quarter is in the offing... but that does not mean the economy is doing peachy keen. That expected positive inventory gain, could be a sign of demand destruction. With energy prices taking a bite out of disposable income, consumers will likely dial back in other areas.

So the outlook is a mixed bag in my opinion. A mixed bag is better than all negative, so there is some room for optimism. 

Have a good holiday!!

Continuing a Time Honored Tradition... An Old Person Rant!

 

I am old and therefore expected to rant like an old person... so here goes.

The world is changing and not in a good way. Familiar with this mantra? It is the fall back for most of us older folks, yet ignores the same thing being said by seniors back when we were "young."

I recall my Father ranting about today's youth and the downfall of America's values. My Grandfather was also in the vicinity and recalled how he thought the same thing a generation earlier. My Grandfather was born in 1888 and my father in 1911. My grandfather probably looked around circa 1930 and was justifiably concerned about the way things were going. My father probably looked around in the late 60s and was of the same frame of thought.

I didn't have a lot to complain about in the 90s, when my kids were exiting their teenage years. But lo and behold, there is plenty to rant about now. The problem I have is which group to blame. My grandchildren, my children, or I. 

This probably falls on me, just like it fell on previous generations of the past. WE set in motion what is the reality of today. 

Unfortunately, there is not a lot my generation can do at this point and will need to rely on the younger generations. Whether they rise to the challenge or ignore it, as done by previous generations, is up to them. They are creating the world they wish to live in, which might not be my first choice. 

In summary, I need to step back and stop complaining about how the world is going to hell in a hand basket. It is my world that is doing that... not theirs.

However, the realization of that does not prohibit me from whining and complaining. That is about all I have left... so just roll your eyes, shake your head, and give me some space. Afterall, this will be you a generation from now. 😊

Let's Talk Energy, or Lack Thereof!

 

It seems everyone is fixated on the high price of gasoline. I have no idea what was expected, when everyone was shouting "hell yeah", stopping imports of Ruskie oil is a small price to pay. 

As I have stated earlier... this seems to fit the definition of "virtue signaling". A lot of chatter, without really meaning it.

As Europe tries to wean themselves off Russian Crude... someone get to make it up. Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, our exports of Crude and Petroleum products has exceeded our imports by an average of 1 million barrels per day. The U.S. based inventories across the spectrum is still below levels seen over the past 5 years in late May.

Do not expect the above to slow any time soon and be mindful of the upside potential in prices. As I had mentioned previously... we are soon entering Hurricane and Tropical Storm season for the Atlantic. With over 50% of our refining capacity along the Gulf Coast... anything more than a slight breeze could really inflate prices at the pump. 

Now for Natural Gas... the prices of natural gas have not hit an all time high in the U.S. but there is clearly upward pressure here, while LNG exports are affecting and easing the prices of natural gas in Europe. Fortunately for us, there is limited infrastructure for processing LNG for export, LNG container ships and offloading facilities in Europe. But there are big bucks to be made, so expect the limitations to fade in the next few years.

In any case, the Natural Gas market will weigh heavily on the inflation readings going forward. It does impact a wide variety of industries. 

Thar's Gold in Them Thar Hills!!

Photo from Bank of England

(Another one from the old dustbin, trotted out due to rumors of Russia adopting the Gold Standard).

Gold is a subject that strikes me as something confusing. I get it was a valuable medium of exchange in days of yore, but I am unable to understand the fascination that certain "gold bugs" currently have with the precious metal. Again, I am not an expert on much of anything.

I wonder about some of the claims about a so-called gold standard, such as...

A gold standard controls inflation. It does not. Like anything else, if the gold supply increases, the likelihood of price increases occurs. When it decreases, it reverses that process. One should look no further than two periods in global history.

When the Spaniards found large amount of gold in the new world, the supply of gold became such that prices increased. When those prices increased to the point of outstripping the cost of mining gold, the supply dwindled, and the prices began to fall. From the early 1700s to early 1800s, the average inflation was thought to be around 1%. That sounds really good and a great argument for a gold standard, but the various decades of that period show large bouts of inflation, followed by large bouts of deflation.

We can even look at our nation's history (U.S.) and see a similar pattern when discussing some type of precious metal standard. There were also serious bouts of inflation/deflation. Demand of goods seems to be the main determinant of the price, not some fixation on gold/silver.

When we talk about the importance of a "gold" standard, what are we advocating. We were on the "gold" standard when the Great Depression hit and previous recessions/depressions.

Are we talking about having each dollar of currency, 100% backed by gold? We have about $1.7T in currency and coin in circulation, so that 261,498,926.241 troy ounces of gold held by the U.S. government, indicates the gold should be about $6,500, compared to the current price of $1,287.30 per troy ounce.

Clearly, we would need to remove about $1.37T currency and coin from the system. Of course, we live in a fractional reserve system, as nearly every other country on earth, so the M1, which is the most liquid form of assets would also need to be reduced by $2.9T and the M2 by about $11.6 trillion. We are talking MASSIVE DEFLATION throughout the economy.

As for the days of the gold standard, such as the period leading up to the great depression, the gold standard required that 60% of the money supply be backed by gold. Not sure if that was M1 or M2 or even currency and coins. In any case, it would create a real problem if depositors ran to the bank with coins and currency... demanding gold and/or silver in exchange. Oh wait... it did.

One area where the gold standard could be considered beneficial, would be in foreign trade. If we had transferred gold to balance our trade deficits, the resultant inflation, would have rebalanced the trade. Of course, we would be paying a lot more for things made in the USA, instead of saving money by buying foreign products.

It is a fun exercise to talk about a gold standard but be very wary of such a thing happening. It may not be quite the pie in the sky, that is being promoted by those "gold bugs".

Of course, if I had a lot of gold and wanted to make a profit by selling... I might attempt to use any manner of tactics to inflate that price. Eventually, one of those tactics might work.

P.S. The U.S. does have a gold standard, and it is something around $42 1/3. Don't try to use that number to avoid the taxman. It's been tried and failed. Of course, you could convert those ounces of gold to that dollar figure, but it is not a very wise investment, imo.

The Expert Disagrees With My Way of Thinking. Let's Trash the Scum!!

 

via GIPHY

This is what it has become... My expert is perfect and yours is an idiot. Geesh!

Never-mind the specific wheres (yes plural), but I have observed that any "expert" is being vigorously questioned and ridiculed, depending on the audience belief. If the left presents an "expert", the right immediately piles on the ridicule and if the right presents an "expert", the left goes ballistic.

What is weird is some of these "experts" were in vogue for the opposite groups in just a few months past. How many times have you observed someone being completely ridiculed as being someone not worthy of listening to... and then a few months later being quoted as a reliable person?

The old "enemy of my enemy is my friend". In this case the "former enemy and no friend of mine that tells nothing but lies, is now an enemy of another of my enemies and is therefore now my friend and must be trusted in every utterance about another of my enemy, until such point that former enemy/ new friend says something negative about one of my friends that isn't true and therefore now has no credibility and tells lies about everything and anyone that believes those lies is an idiot".

I'm sure there is a simple phrase to describe this, but I am at a loss. In any case, the definition of "expert" is now called into question in a similar manner, all based on which network they appear. 

Which begs the question... are the networks picking these experts based on the network's worldview and political philosophy?

The thing about experts is they tend to speak above my intellectual level and therefore the message becomes confusing when they differ ever so slightly or even completely. Particularly when each claim their ideas are based on science. I firmly believe that science is the "search for fact". So, it is entirely plausible that both are correct and I am misinterpreting the message.

The frustration is a matter for a later topic.

Weather or Not! Why Not!

3 times this past week, the notion of a tropical storm or hurricane has popped up on a certain weather forecasting model. It was the only model to indicate this potential and subsequent models did not reflect any such movements.

For the record this one and only model indicated a storm likely moving across the Florida panhandle on the 24th. A day later... nothing. A couple of days later, the indication was a storm likely moving over New Orleans on the 29th. Then nothing. Today it shows a strong disturbance just south of Cuba. Tomorrow will likely show nothing. Only one model has shown anything... all others nothing.

I am NOT forecasting a hurricane or a tropical storm in the near future... or even one at all. My point is about how 50% of the USA petroleum refining capacity is along the Gulf Coast, as well as LNG terminals.

Current inventories of crude and the various petroleum products are below the seasonal range of normal inventory. A gander at the weekly report from the EIA.gov quickly indicates the dilemma we are in. To clarify what below the seasonal range actually means... lowest of the past 5 years, based on this time of year.

We've had massive storms in the past, but were able to weather the storm, due to sufficient inventories. It would not take much of a storm to skyrocket prices from current levels. The potential for a tropical storm along the Gulf Coast, is not an unreasonable forecast for sometime this summer. 

That is my point, weather you like it or not. 

Hoarding Update and Other Random Things.

It has been over two years since hoarding became my mantra and quite frankly… I am getting rather sick of it. 

Outside of a few perishable items, my grocery purchases are now limited. It has become time to reduce the inventory. Not of stuff I might use, but stuff that “seemed” intriguing or stuff that might be used once upon a time… before hasn’t done anything but collect dust. 

Cannellini Beans; smooth Jif peanut butter; kidney beans; chickpeas, canned pinto beans (other than Lucks); single cans of other stuff that remain from failed taste tests. All this was due to one of those food drives. Like most Americans, my generosity is limited to stuff I don't want or need. More on that later.

Don’t get me wrong, I will not starve to death. I am experiencing a strong case of food boredom. On the bright side, I am saving money on the old grocery budget, but somehow this only seems to increase my curbside/takeout/delivery expenses. Even those are starting to wear thin.

As inflation is all the rage… allow me to dive into that barrel of outrage. It was not long ago, I was led to believe everyone was okay with gasoline costing more, if we were to reduce our imports of Russian energy. The we, are the many individuals on the many social media outlets I frequent saying... "Let’s support Ukraine!!!"

Now we have these same individuals screaming about the price of gasoline. It makes it hard to believe anyone about anything. Sacrificing for the cause is merely an illusion in modern America... and elsewhere, if people are telling the truth about their locations. I people really wanted to send a message... it would be use less, but that ain't the American way. I may be biased, as I drive an average of 20 miles per week.

It seems that everything is politicized and is being used to further divide. 

Retail Trade Report for April 2022

 

The Census Bureau has released the April 2022 Advance Retail And Food Services Estimates. (The graph is roughly adjusted for inflation, while the report and following summary are not adjusted for inflation. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.7 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 8.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above April 2021. 

Total sales for the February 2022 through April 2022 period were up 10.8 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2022 to March 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 1.4 percent (±0.3 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from March 2022, and up 6.7 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 36.9 percent (±1.8 percent) from April 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 19.8 percent (±4.4 percent) from last year.

The winners are Motor vehicle & parts dealers, up 2.17% MoM; Non-store retailers (which include Mail Order and Electronic Shopping), up 2.15%; and  Food services & drinking places, up 2.0%. (All not adjusted for inflation.)

Of the $6.063B increase from March... those figures above account for $7.309B of that $6.063B. Which would indicate all the rest lost -$1.246B, but Gasoline Stations were down -$1.734B, leaving all the rest to divvy up the remaining $488M, not adjusted for inflation.

All in all, a slight improvement, although I fail to see how the auto sector can continue the upward trend. I suspect borrowing heavily is once again in vogue and wonder at what point in time... increased interest rates will stifle this enthusiasm.

I guess only time will tell. 

Jury Trials

Cornell Research

(Another one from the old dustbin)

It has always intrigued me, as to the thinking of jurors in any type of trial. This began back in my teens when someone I knew was murdered. The "perp" told a group of us, that he was going to find "that person" and beat him to death. He did.

He was charged with 1st degree murder or whatever it was called back then. Yet, he was acquitted. That puzzled me for a very long time, but after observing a few trials... it became clear. It is not really about the evidence or the crime, but the believability that the defendant could do such a thing and jury bias. Oh, you think because everyone including the jurors say they are not biased... they are telling the truth.

In this case, the defendant came from a fine upstanding family in the community and the victim was a known troublemaker. So, when the victim broke a beer bottle to defend himself, the defendant was able to plead self-defense, even though he had initiated the contact and made the threats.

Similar cases over the years, indicate that jurors place "feelings" and societal norms into the deliberations. 

Another case in point. A few years back, a young woman was charged with 1st degree homicide for the death of her infant. 1st Degree meaning she deliberately and willfully set about to kill her child. That charge, plus others, guaranteed a sentence of no less than 37 years, if convicted.

It is very difficult for society to accept the notion that a mother would deliberately kill their own child, let alone should be punished with such a lengthy sentence... thus the bar for reasonable doubt was so much different than it would be, if the defendant had been an ugly black man. Yes, race plays a part, as society's preconceived notions are in play. Just as in famous people, etc.

If the young woman had been charged with some form of manslaughter, with a 5~10-year sentence... I contend a conviction would have been made. Those options were not on the table. Just as in the original example, I suspect this was the intent.

Whether it be Marin/Zimmerman or any other case at play... the results seem conclusive, regarding where the bar is set for "reasonable" doubt. Jurors might think they are not biased, but deep down that bar gets set differently.

It's just the way it is, imo. 

Transitory, Good for Average Americans, A Real Problem!

Over the past year and a half, inflation has moved from being transitory, to being possibly good for average Americans and bad for the rich… and now generally seen as bad and possibly long term or seeing a period of stagflation.

Most of that depends on perspective, as someone like me considers inflation to be mostly bad. 

The problem seems to be the idea that prices will reach a level that will crimp the consumer’s zeal for purchasing and then creating a recession. Are we there yet?

Probably not, as bountiful stimulus checks offset much of the inflationary impact of the past year. By stimulus checks, I am referring to the Spring 2021 $1,400 checks, which coincided with the mass introduction of covid vaccines and a general feeling of the bad times being in the rear-view mirror.

Now the consumer is using more and more debt to continue their spending habits, just as interest rates are ticking up. The assumption being to buy stuff now, before the price escalates. Naturally the expectation is the increase in prices will outweigh the added interest burden. 

Borrowing from the bank might make that true, but credit cards are a loser, in my opinion. I can see no scenario where inflation would outpace credit card rates. Yet, this is the area that is now being expanded by card holders. How much longer can that continue?

As for general inflation, I would expect food to continue the rise, as climate, wars, fertilizer costs, etc. will continue for at least another year. Food costs are approximately 14% of average household spending. THAT average household total spending annually is now running about $47,000. If you are spending less than that, then quite likely your food costs are a much higher percentage of expenses.

Energy makes up about 8% of those expenses, although gasoline runs about half that figure. I can not imagine much relief in that area before fall. Currently the short-term prognosis is average U.S. retail to rise to $4.50 per gallon, which is slightly above current retail. We are just now entering the “summer” driving season, so I can only expect this to go higher. 

What about the rest? I cannot imagine a situation where the current inflation is not passed onto the broader economy. Inflation may slow in these areas, but certainly will not reverse any time soon. 

Then there is the beginning of shortages, which was China’s lockdowns of 2020. We seem to forget this period of hoarding as there were shortages of vital components for our industries. China has been battling lockdowns over the past couple of months… that are more widespread than 2020. This is a rather large variable, as they come out of lockdown and all those ships start moving to ports elsewhere.

I have an uneasy feeling about many things but need to just chill for a while. 

Producer Price Index for April 2022

The Producer Price Index as released by the BLS, this A.M. 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 1.6 percent in March and 1.1 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 11.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

In April, the rise in the index for final demand is primarily attributable to a 1.3-percent advance in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand construction increased 4.0 percent, while prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in April after increasing 0.9 percent in March. For the 12 months ended in April, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.9 percent.

The final demand annual rate slipped from last month, and the month to month slid to lowest since December of 2020, at 0.518%. 

Not everything was even, as processed foods (consumer) jumped 1.36% MoM. Finished consumer energy goods, slipped ever so slightly. Hard to imagine, but it was true. Not so true for May... at this point. 

Kicking out the energy and food sector, everything else rose 1.03% MoM. (1.1% last month.) Better but not truly encouraging. On a year over year basis... this category stands at 6.9% and last month was 7.1%. November through this report reflected this numbers... 7.0%, 7.0%, 6.9%, 6.7%, 7.1%, 6.9%.

Not exactly indicative of any relief in consumer pricing. I think we can expect some more increases in energy for this month and food appears to be heading up for quite a period of time. 

Maybe Tuesday's retail report will shed more light on direction. 

 

 

Breakdown of CPI DATA and Real Earnings, April 2022

 

The BLS report for April...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

From last month...

I can fairly confidently (and sadly) state that April numbers due out in May, will likely be north of 8.0%, such as between 8.0% and 8.5%.

So it was 8.3%, or more accurately... 8.26%. That is nothing to brag about, as it bites hard.  

Here is the chart for various inflation figures...

I am drifting upward from 6.4% annual to 6.7%.

While the headline CPI slipped from 8.5% to 8.3%, my own CPI rose. This is largely due to food prices, as having "hoarded" many items and currently reducing the inventory... more pantry items come into play. Additionally, certain medical costs and supplies have edged up a bit more than previous periods. 

The April Earnings Report from the BLS...

WOW... Since February of 2020, an increase of one penny.

The slide has slowed, at least since last month. But can it continue?

Difficult to see how inflation would slow for May, as I think food prices will continue the upward spiral and energy, which was flat to slightly down in April, appears to be ratcheting up again. Of course, there might be some slowing in other areas, but is so hard to gauge. 

My best guess is 7.9%~8.2% for the May reading which comes out in June.

Now for the really, way too early prediction for C.O.L.A. which is officially announced in October AND is based on average CPI-W 3rd quarter year over year... 6.9%~7.2%. Yeah, I know that is not up to par with current inflation rates, but the big money is betting on inflation really cooling in the 2nd half of the year, which starts in July. Possibly even some demand destruction, so it will be interesting to watch. 

The PPI comes out tomorrow and might provide some indication of tapering.

Do Politicians Really Lie??

(Pulled this out of the old dustbin).

I suspect that current day politicians aren't the prolific liars of the days of yore. Bear with me a minute.

In days of yore, politicians heaped praise on themselves and lauded themselves on the wonderful jobs they have done and the great things they will accomplish in the future. A lot of lying took place.

In our current environment, politicians still do those things, but the real meat is in attacking the opponent with smears, etc. Unfortunately, most of these attacks on the character of their opponents are quite likely true.

Granted it is only my opinion, but based on that last paragraph... I consider today's politicians more honest than those of the past.

That is NOT to be construed as politicians of today being more honest, trustworthy, or ethical. Quite the opposite.

All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. 

The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. 

On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. - H.L Mencken ?1920?

That was from nearly 100 years ago and while some people might look at some of the recent elections and nod their heads in agreement... it should be noted that most of Mencken's quote are very past tense.

Politicians have become more adept at avoiding the truth, massaging the truth and spinning the truth.

Just sayin...

Funny, Strange, ODD, and Disinformation!

Where France's Macron buys his suits is front page news on one of the many international news websites I peruse. 

Germany's Chancellor has done another about face, which has left the columnists spinning, trying to keep up.

Europe is cooperating on gas, which suggests some sort of united front, but really ends up with several countries in Europe not cooperating and even one stating they will veto. I got to look up "cooperating", in the dictionary. Hungary claims there are 10 countries using the Rubles for Energy scheme.

Previously, Germany got the blame for obstinance regarding sanctions, but any meaningful sanctions have seen the EU bloc in disarray. Conveniently, the Germans are now pushing back by laying blame on "other" members of the EU. No doubt they will eventually coalesce their blame shifting and lay all this at the feet of Americans. Some things never change. 

Pelosi has been to Ukraine and is seen posing with Zelensky. Is it one of those selfies Zelensky was so critical of?

India is on pace to have a record wheat crop. Oh wait, India is undergoing a massive heat wave which may dramatically limit the wheat crop. 

Musk buys twitter and Homeland Security announces, "Disinformation Governance Board". DGB... not to be confused with KGB, which was a completely different committee. What qualifies as disinformation, misinformation, etc.? Who decides when a lie is no longer a lie, or when the truth is no longer the truth?

Speaking of disinformation... CNN is boldly proclaiming "3 Signs that Prices Could Soon Come Down." Prices coming down would be a sign of "deflation". The rate of inflation might come down, but prices... not so much. But it is CNN, so excuse the confusion or is this what the KGB DGB will soon remedy? Not intentionally leaving out FOX, MSNBC, et al, but it is way too much.

I keep reading where China's economy may be stalling, but until China says it is... it isn't. I fully expect them to say they are meeting targets. <wink> <wink>

A lot of concern about U.S. farmers cutting back on fertilizer and the potential for much lower crop yields as a result. The big farmers bought their fertilizers and inputs and had it all delivered by December 31st. Granted the big farmers does not equate to all farmers, but the weather is still the biggest factor. That weather has not been very cooperative at the start of this planting season.

This nugget from a Deutsche Welle opinion piece, regarding North Korea...

Pyongyang claims the most advanced weapon in its armory can carry multiple warheads and has a range of more than 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles), putting the entire continental US within striking distance.  

Note that the continental US is singled out. That distance puts all of Asia, Europe, Oceania, the North American Continent, most of Antarctica, most of Africa, and South America above the equator. It would not be difficult to understand the continental U.S. would be the main objective, but the wording seems to indicate only the U.S., while ignoring fallout, etc. 

Run out of things to ponder, so time to wrap this up. 

NATO and the Western Alliance

 

Where to start? I really don't know and at times this might seem like a rant, so bear with me. 

We are being told that the NATO alliance has never been stronger but is that true. There is a lot of posturing in favor of NATO, but what are the real opinions of Europeans, Canadians, and Americans.

In 2019, PEW research published the results of their survey titled "NATO Seen Favorably Across Member States," with the subheading of "Many in member countries express reservations about fulfilling Article 5’s collective defense obligations."

Maybe I am misinterpreting the results, but it would seem that much of the public is opposed to their own military engaging on behalf of another member. I suspect this is due to the one- and only-time article V was invoked. It becomes difficult to determine the thought processes of those giving their opinions.

At that time, I would have suspected they meant if the U.S. was again attacked, but recent events suggest if any NATO member was attacked. The PEW Research addressed this in 2019 with the question... 

The expectation is for the U.S. to carry the load. This idea is firmly planted, in my opinion. Certainly, polls taken today might suggest something else, but is the respondent simply saying what is a safe answer?

The problem with all of this, is the U.S. might be able to do the heavy lifting, but at what cost and who bears the brunt of the criticism for any collateral damage. Collateral damage would include such things as economic turmoil, due to energy supply curtailment. Pause and think about that.

I have no doubt that European Citizens would blame the U.S. as it seems to be their historical go to when anything bad happens ... and unfortunately sometimes it is correct (rarely taking responsibility for their own mistakes). It would likely lead to the collapse of NATO. There would likely be a hue and cry over what the U.S. had wrought and lead the Americans to turn very negative towards NATO... to the point of opting out. Not that far away, in my humble opinion. A great many Americans are already questioning NATO's value.

Therefore, the U.S. must walk a razor thin line between supporting Ukraine and avoiding Russia cutting off energy supplies. 

Like a lot of folks, I originally thought Russia just wanted Ukraine, but I suspect the main objective is dissolution of NATO and severing U.S. ties with Europe. 

I realize this might seem far-fetched, but given the attitudes of various countries, towards the United States, ...it moves the needle towards that real possibility.

Unfortunately, there is a much bigger picture at play... which would be the Western Alliance, which in this case would also include some countries in the Pacific. In that regard, I am referring to a way of life we have become accustomed to.

Indecisive action is leaving the door open to further divisions and giving the enemies to our way of life, an opening to seize upon.

No, this was not a positive and uplifting blog article. I am old and won't likely see the end of all this, but I have children and grandchildren for which I worry.