The BLS report for April...
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
From last month...
I can fairly confidently (and sadly) state that April numbers due out in May, will likely be north of 8.0%, such as between 8.0% and 8.5%.
So it was 8.3%, or more accurately... 8.26%. That is nothing to brag about, as it bites hard.
Here is the chart for various inflation figures...
I am drifting upward from 6.4% annual to 6.7%.
While the headline CPI slipped from 8.5% to 8.3%, my own CPI rose. This is largely due to food prices, as having "hoarded" many items and currently reducing the inventory... more pantry items come into play. Additionally, certain medical costs and supplies have edged up a bit more than previous periods.
WOW... Since February of 2020, an increase of one penny.
The slide has slowed, at least since last month. But can it continue?
Difficult to see how inflation would slow for May, as I think food prices will continue the upward spiral and energy, which was flat to slightly down in April, appears to be ratcheting up again. Of course, there might be some slowing in other areas, but is so hard to gauge.
My best guess is 7.9%~8.2% for the May reading which comes out in June.
Now for the really, way too early prediction for C.O.L.A. which is officially announced in October AND is based on average CPI-W 3rd quarter year over year... 6.9%~7.2%. Yeah, I know that is not up to par with current inflation rates, but the big money is betting on inflation really cooling in the 2nd half of the year, which starts in July. Possibly even some demand destruction, so it will be interesting to watch.
The PPI comes out tomorrow and might provide some indication of tapering.
No comments:
Post a Comment