Friday, February 24, 2023

PCE Revisions and End of Month Inflation Results (All Reports)

So here it is...

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This also, includes the latest revisions in the PCE release. I include the previous month's report to indicate the revisions.
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You will notice some sharp upward revisions, compared to last month. That +0.6% M/M increase was after the major adjustment in December's numbers. Without that December adjustment, that +0.6% would have been much higher. 

Don't worry too much, as these numbers get adjusted on a regular basis. It does serve to point out that inflation is not falling off a cliff.

The good news would be the "trimmed mean PCE". It actually slid -0.1%, after holding at 4.7% for the preceding 5 months. 

The BEA Report. The Dallas FED Report. For a breakout of "trimmed"... It is an Excel download. Of the 54 items not trimmed, I utilize 7 (13%.) Of the 121 trimmed out, I utilize 42 (34.7%.)

Oh well, my own CPI is 5.5%. Using the trimmed mean, it is 4.9% v the FED's 4.6%. 

I would write about the GDP, but it gets revised on a regular basis. Next month will be revised and the annual revision in July will take place for all. Sometimes, as much as 3.0% change from the original advance release.

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