Today's PPI Release... February 16th, 2022

The BLS has released the January Producer Price Index Report. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.2 percent in December 2022 and advanced 0.3 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended January 2023. 

In January, a 1.2-percent rise in prices for final demand goods led the advance in the final demand index. Prices for final demand services also moved higher, increasing 0.4 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.6 percent in January 2023, the largest advance since moving up 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in January 2023, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 4.5 percent. 

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So the numbers were higher than expectations. I think someone under estimated those numbers. Last month's intermediates suggested a pop in final demand for this month. My estimate was wrong at +0.8% for the month. That was a miss to the high side. 

Next month is likely to surprise to the low side, possibly even a monthly negative, with annual at the +4.4% range.

Probably wrong again, but hopefully, to the high side... again.