Gasoline consumption through week of Mar-3-2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were up 8.7¢ this week, to $3.446. A year ago, the price had ballooned to $4.173. 

The seasonal consumption is edging up. (This is a four week moving average). It is +0.3% above one year ago levels. However, the national average pump price is -17.4% below same period.

Click image to enlarge

If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +92.8M barrels. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be.

Where will pump prices be next week? My inclination would be a rise of about 7¢ per gallon. Hopefully, I am wrong. I am basing this on the following...

• Refinery utilization is slightly below last week and last year.
• Consumption is increasing above last year's levels
• Imports fell and exports rose. 

Unfortunately, I nearly nailed the forecast from last week, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. So hoping I am wrong for this upcoming week.