CPI DATA results, March Reports 2023

The BLS report was released this morning and it was a shade above consensus estimates. (historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase, with the indexes for food, recreation, and household furnishings and operations also contributing. The food index increased 0.4 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.3 percent. The energy index decreased 0.6 percent over the month as the natural gas and fuel oil indexes both declined.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in February, after rising 0.4 percent in January. Categories which increased in February include shelter, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and airline fares. The index for used cars and trucks and the index for medical care were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index increased 6.0 percent for the 12 months ending February; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.5 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month increase since December 2021. The energy index increased 5.2 percent for the 12 months ending February, and the food index increased 9.5 percent over the last year. 

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That's all from the BLS. Now on to my inflation stats. Which receded annually to 5.0% and 0.2% month to month.

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I would hope for a repeat during March, but with nearly half the month already gone... it is looking a bit iffy. 

Overall, the inflation outlook is improving, but still some pinkish areas overall. The PPI report tomorrow might provide a better outlook.

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Most everything I have read, indicates the CPI report was "close" to expectations. The upside surprise was the Core figures, which were tad above expectations. 

Which brings me to the March expectations. Everything I am reading indicates next month's release will have a much lower rate of inflation, as in 5.2% range. However, core is expected in the range of 5.7%, or to increase. Also on the month to month.

For that to happen the non core part - food and energy,  would have to drop fairly sharply. Not really seeing it at this point.