The BLS report was released this morning and it was a shade below consensus estimates. (historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase. This more than offset a decline in the energy index, which decreased 3.5 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes declined. The food index was unchanged in March with the food at home index falling 0.3 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March, after rising 0.5 percent in February. Indexes which increased in March include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles. The index for medical care and the index for used cars and trucks were among those that decreased over the month.
A couple of notes... "all major components declined". That is with "seasonal" adjustment. While the overall index eased, the gasoline component was up +1.0% and is currently on the rise for April, as in +3.0%. Be careful of the spin.
Food at home, did drop, but that food away from home... seems to be hanging tough.
The real story is sticky prices, or Core, or CPI ex- food and energy. It actually rose on an annual basis, and was above expectations on the monthly. It would have been even worse, but the Medical side inexplicably fell. If it had remained flat, you could add another +0.1% to that Core.
Simply looking at the core at 5.6%, with the overall being 5.0%... should tell you that drops in energy is where the most savings are. Further browsing through the numbers, indicate most items, other than gasoline are where those savings are. How much longer can that last?
The forecast indicates an increase in Core, with the overall remaining at current level of +5.0%. So clearly the big brains think it will continue. The may be right, but the politics of pump prices, tends to overshadow all the other energy components.
Generally speaking, those winter heating bills drop and consumers don't really recognize the cost per unit difference. Gasoline is right in your face at the pump... and everyone seems to recognize that cost per unit.
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