Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were down -3.8¢ this week, to $3.646. A year ago, the price had ballooned to $4.131. I eventually projected a -5.0¢ decrease. It is going the right direction.
The consumption edged up a healthy +0.6% from last week, and jumped 6.8% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).
The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +99M barrels. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be. I should note this figure represents a massive 2M barrel drop from last week.
Where will pump prices be next week? Last week, I forecast a -5.0¢ decrease and got a -3.8¢ drop. I hope this continues, and evidence suggests it will.
How much... maybe another -5.6¢ at the pump.
EDIT 4-29-2023: It has fallen -3.4¢, as of this AM, but appears to be near bottom at $3.615. Darn it! However not seeing any rapid rises... at this point.
The good news, is the predictions for a national average $4 pump price by March, then April... is looking doubtful for May.
A lot depends on the gasoline import/export balance. We saw what a surge in exports over imports could result in last year with prices jumping big time. The import/export margin has narrowed considerably, with the result in easing of pump prices.
I really wish I had a crystal ball and could tell which way the liquid gold is flowing... but I don't. All I can do is watch the future's market for some sense of what is happening.
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