I found some things of interest in the GDP and PCE reports, but first... the usual nonsense.
The sticky prices continue to be the story.
The 4.6%, in today's report, takes us all the way back to October, 2021 and 4.3%. About the time a suggestion was made to end the use of transitory.
The following chart is a snapshot of this month's report, compared to last month and the revisions are highlighted in red. Nothing sinister, as this happens frequently as it is based on incomplete data, that becomes more complete as time passes.
In short... this month's data could be revised up or down by next month.
In any case, the PCE came in at expectations. Services saved the day, but before you think of restaurants as services... it is, but on about 18%. Think housing and utilities, which were a bit hot, imho.
Unfortunately, the expectations are a bit higher for April's PCE report. PCE at 4.5 and core at 4.7
GDP came in a surprise 1.1% annualized. The forecast I was looking at, was around 2.0% annualized. The problem with the downside surprise, is the -1.8% forecast for 2nd and 3rd quarter, with -0.6% for the 4th quarter.
The shocker was in the change in private inventory sector, which was -1.6, compared to last month's +136.5. The reason for such a number is where the big story might be. But, I am too tired to contemplated that any further on a Friday night.
Have a nice weekend!
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