Saturday, May 27, 2023

Review of PCE, GDP, etc., for end of May, 2023

 

There was a "surprise", as the PCE EX FOOD and ENERGY was higher than forecast. I am not sure why it was a surprise, as the forecast I saw... was for 4.7%. 


Perhaps the surprise was no downward revisions.






I would think the 0.0% rise in chained (2012) dollars for Disposable personal income, compared to PCE of same being at 0.5% would raise some eyebrows. But it is a credit driven economy, so what the heck. Going deeper in debt is the national pastime. 

Even the GDP was touted as going up from advance estimate of 1.1% to 1.4%, as being stellar. While ignoring the GDI for 4th quarter 2022, was revised sharply downward from -1.1% to -3.3%. The GDI for 1st quarter, 2023 came in at a -2.3% mark. 

In any case DPI now stands at +2.6% above the 1st Quarter, 2020 level. Presented without further editorial comment.







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