Thursday, July 27, 2023

Quick Review of The Advance GDP report 2Q-2023

First off... a screen shot with some additions.


The report has some positives and some concerns. I would agree with the media reports of Gross private domestic investment carrying the load for the quarter, but is it sustainable... given recent slides and spikes.

I am a bit concerned about the Personsal Consumption Expenditures category, as it gives the appearance of losing steam. As the 70.7% indicates... it is a large part of the economy. It did gain, but lagged the overall. Additionally, the was quite a drop from 1Q performance, which itself was stellar... compared to previous recent quarters.

The trade deficit is weighing as heavily as some recent reports and is back into 2021 range. The big question is whether this will continue.

Lastly... government spending. I am a bit old fashioned, as I consider government spending as something that should match, but never exceed the overall economy... unless some dire circumstances are present. Not seeing that at present.

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