9-14-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for August Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, August 2023. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.6 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2022. Total sales for the June 2023 through August 2023 period were up 2.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2023 to July 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2023, and up 1.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were down 10.3 percent (±1.1 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 8.5 percent (±2.3 percent) from August 2022.

Again... "not for price changes", means not adjusted for inflation.

Much is being made of "gasoline's" impact, but the numbers, when adjusted for inflation continue to remain rather stagnant, with adjusted spending remaining rather flat since the roll out of the vaccines and that $1,400 stimulus in spring 2021. Which also coincides with the ramp up of inflation.

Last month, my mood was elevated, as previous month's data had been revised upward, after so many months of downward revisions. 

We seem to be at it again. Can I expect this month's numbers to be revised downward... next month? Revising a previous month downward, then claiming +0.6% increase, while then stating it is mostly gasoline, is befuddling to me. 

Somehow, I expect the cycle to continue, without anyone questioning those banner numbers.