A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VII

Onward I go into the endless fun of politics.

As stated previously, yes the polls are wrong, but in what way? Oddly, the polls that were wrong, were consistently wrong in both 2016 and 2020.

As can be noted, Arizona and Virgina were downright accurate. Georgia, New York and Washington near perfect, each with a very slight variance benefitting one party.

Some states had very poor polls to results variance. This could be attributable to a few factors...

• Why would a democrat waste time on voting for a democrat candidate, in a heavily republican state?
• Why would a republican waste time on voting for a republican candidate, in a heavily democrat state?
• Why would a democrat waste time on voting for a democrat candidate, when victory is assured?
• Why would a republican waste time on voting for a republican candidate, when victory is assured?
• Perhaps the polling does not reflect the results, due to individuals hiding their true opinions, due to fear.

In any case, where polls have been wrong, they were equally wrong in both elections.

Wisconsin was a clear Clinton victory, until it wasn't. Wisconsin was an even more clear Biden victory, but it was downright scary close.

That same scenario played out in Pennsylvania and to some extent Michigan.

Naturally, some states are already decided, in my opinion. It is the so called battleground states that are intriquing.

When taking that information and reviewing the current polling composite...

Currently, the Locks and those Leaning, favor the Republican Candidate. The Democrat Candidate needs to hold Virginia, Minnesota and Colorado. Nevada(6) could be swung around, as well as Pennsylvania(19) and possibly Michigan(15), although not so favorable at this point.

That still leaves the need for one more state and it is hard to make a case for any, based on past polling discrepancies.

That is why so much concern is emanating from the Democrat party.

As to Colorado and the 14th amendment. I guess the courts will decide, but whether Trump is on the ballot or not, Colorado's 10 EVs are still Blue. Just as they would, for several other states attempting to jump on the bandwagon. Same could be said for Red states.

Keeping someone of the primary ballot does not mean keeping them off the general election ballot.

Makes for great theater and the clickbait media coverage is in full swing.

Whether any of it amounts to anything, is yet to be seen.

Merry Christmas!