I'll try not to harp about this too much. The BEA switched from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars for 3Q23, and adjusted prior data. I download all such reports, so I can easily tell the difference.
The trade deficit is a drag on GDP, thus in the 2Q23 original report, that drag was -5.95%. As of right now, after those adjustments... the drag is-4.14%. Quite an improvement. The stated +4.9% GDP is a catch up to what can only be viewed as under-reporting of previous quarters.
How that change affects going forward, is uncertain to me. Given the wide array of expectations for 4Q23, I am thinking not everyone is on the same page. I am done harping about this.
Now on to the PCE report, after reviewing adjustments...
Yes, inflation is slowing, not deflating, with the exception of gasoline, which looks to have stopped falling.
The monthly summary...
All in all, a pretty good monthly report card. I do think the market is making too big a deal on expectations of the FED cutting rates before summer, but what do I know?
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