A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VIII

Onward and upward, or something akin to that adage.

As I delve further into the 2024 election process, I should briefly review previous posts, where I alluded to polls being wrong, but consistently wrong in the 2016 and 2020 General Elections. Further review... indicated those tendencies back to the 2000 election. 

Why, I don't know, but gave some ideas. 

It should be noted that evaluation of previous general election polling trends, really did not get reviewed until the party nomination was largely settled. More into Spring until the general election. The assumption of the 2024 nominations being settled, is a bit of fantasy. 

Currently, it would be hard to disagree with the following chart, as to which states are almost certain to fall into one column, which leaves 188 toss-ups. I allowed for Maine and Nebraska, due to split electoral voting system.

Speaking of Maine and Nebraska, it is likely that the single votes in the toss-up column will go blue or red. Thus the R-149 and D-203.

The variance chart...

Texas seems to be in the toss-up column, although not sure why. This is somewhat due to the tendency of polls to slightly understate the democrat votes. Still, the state falls into republican territory quite comfortably. Now it is R-189 and D-203.

Florida is next up and the polls for the state, tend to slightly overstate the democrat support, while understating the republican support. Thus Florida with its 30 EVs moves the needle to R-219 and D-203.

Virginia (13) keeps getting into the toss-up category. It puzzles me as to why, as it will very likely vote the democrat candidate and has a stellar polling v result score, imo. Thus R-219 and D-216.

I will lump Arizona (11) and Georgia (16) together, as they both have been consistently correct in polling matching outcomes. Polls seem to indicate a fairly strong republican tendency, which translates to R-246 and D-216.

Might as well get Wisconsin (10) out of the way. Of all the states with polling discrepancies, compared to results... Wisconsin is very high on the list, with a 6.5 variance, which tends to favor republicans. Polling greatly underestimates republican support and overestimates democrat support, when compared to general election results. Having stated that, the narrow polling margin, which is slightly in favor of Trump, indicates R-256 and D-216.

That leaves 66 electoral votes to decide the election. 

I haven't even gotten to North Carolina (16), which appears almost certain to fall into the R column. Now it is R-272 and D-216.

Now for Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19). Two states, which closely follow Wisconsin in under-reporting republican support and overstating democrat support. That both states are indicating a republican advantage, before looking at previous polling errors, it seems appropriate to throw them into the repubican slot. R-306 and D-216.

Nevada you say. Nevada (6) is currently leaning R, but previous history, indicates under-reporting democrat support. Still a slight edge for R, but very slight. Now it is R-306, D-216, and T-6.

Then there is the curious case of Minnesota (10), which has historically been polled with Rs being underestimated, and Ds being overestimated, compared to general election. That polling is currently very narrow, which could possibly be a problem for Dems.

R-306, D-216, and T-16.

There is a lot of time left to change things. Of course, there is always time to change things... until time runs out. 

I will resist the temptation to post frequently, but if those EVs change, then I might jump in.