Friday, May 31, 2024

Review of April 2024 data, 1Q GDP revisions, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary is not so bad, actually.


The best that can be said, is inflation has stabilized, with a further slowing in the cards, by end of the year.


What is striking, is the downward tilt in disposable income AND personal consumption expenditures.


If you carefully look, the previous month was also revised downward, for those two items.


If spending is slowing, it would follow that demand is slowing, which would/should... slow inflation going forward.

As for the GDP revision... it was not unexpected. The story has now become the service sector. Not terribly worrisome, but what caught my eye, is the trade imbalance, which jumped. 

Oh well, that's a wrap for May.

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