Another week, with post debate polls starting to trickle in. Oddly, there is some truth to the idea that Biden may have weathered the storm, but that doesn't mean he is sailing to victory.
Biden is not really in any better shape, than before the debate. As for the impact, that will require a couple more weeks of data, or possibly more. One single polling outlet is not sufficient and the polls must really be state level to gauge the Electoral votes.
Currently, my numbers indicate a Trump lead of +0.6% over Biden in national polling. 538 has Trump at 42.0%, and Biden at 39.9%. Pre-debate had Trump at 41.1%, to Biden at 40.9%. That might seem that Biden is falling, but he has risen from 39.7% and Trump has ease from 42.2%
In any case, this is far from the 52.1% to 41.5% lead, enjoyed by Biden... exactly 4 years ago.
Also, there is the Electoral Vote situation.
Michigan has moved back into toss-up range, but Maine has moved all 4 EVs into the Trump category. Additionally, New Hampshire has moved into toss-up range, after not being considered a battleground state.
I have seen some reports of New Jersey and New Mexico as now being toss-ups. I truly have problems with those contentions and will stick with my methodology. That doesn't mean I am right.
So Biden has said he will not drop out of the race. Biden was losing before the debate and that has not changed. The debate has given cover to democrats to alter the ticket, or so they think. Aside from the problem of being a defender of democracy and overlooking the primary votes, they have significant other problems, imho.
Starting with Kamala Harris. Is she a liability to the ticket or the savior? I see no evidence that she would improve the chances, although a V.P. selection could help. Still, she would be the top of the ticket and the knives will come out.
Michelle Obama's name has been pitched, but she has denied interest. She would have the Harris dilemma to contend with, as well.
Replacing Biden and Harris as nominees... would result in major dilemmas.
Its almost as if the Trump convictions were supposed to sink Trump in the polls, and when that did not happen... Biden was thrown to the wolves. He could have easily stated it would be inappropriate to debate a convicted felon.
Yet now he is getting sage advice from a different convicted felon.
It is so sad, that this has become so comical. But maybe it has always been this way, and the hyper sensitivity of today is the main factor.
A couple of quotes from 100 years past, from H.L. Mencken...
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
"On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
'Nuff said!
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