The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 245 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 67, with an edge still favoring Trump at 46 and Harris at 21. Thus, Trump at 291 and Harris at 247. 270 is needed to win. 45 days to go.
While Harris finally moved up on the electoral count, it was more of Virginia moving out of the Toss-up range in her favor.
While nothing is firm until after the election... Trump seems to have a firmer grip on 245 EVs, with the following odds in a few other states.
Arizona - 11 EVs... Trump with slim edge, at 60%
Georgia - 16 Evs... Trump with the edge, at 85%
Michigan - 15EVs... Harris with a razor thin edge
Nevada - 6 EVs... Harris, razor thin, but edging up.
Pennsylvania - 19 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 73%, down sharply from last week
Those represent 67 EVs. Harris needs 3 of the 5, whereas Trump needs 2.
Harris has taken the lead in the national composite... 49.9 ~ 49.6. In 2016, Clinton led Trump 42.0 ~ 40.3. In 2020, Biden led Trump 50.3 ~ 43.5
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