Pump Prices heading up!!

Reviewed this weeks EIA report and observed the current status of inventories. 

Oddly, although domestic consumption is down from last year, the past couple of weeks has shown an increase in that consumption.

Checking the futures market, refinery operating rates, etc., it would certainly appear that prices will continue that upward trend, with gasoline easily rising another 4¢~7¢ and diesel jumping 9¢+.

Advance Retail Sales

The numbers came out today... https://tinyurl.com/2tjb5w36

Automotive and Home Improvement stores were almost the entirety of the slippage. 

It does indicate some slippage in inflation adjusted, but still within the range from March, 2021... to present. Very near the median and average for that period of time. 

Of course, the impact of tariffs cannot be ascertained by this report. On the surface... what the impact is, the economy is adjusting, or so it seems. 

Millions of People

I kept hearing about millions of people protesting something today, but all the pictures seem to show significant less. Of course there are about 3 million people attending college football games on any given Saturday, in the fall.

3 Million is less than 1% of the U.S. population. Then there is the matter of how many millions protested and how many were actually virtue signaling.

There has been a lot of protests in my lifetime, some much bigger than today's. In reality... nothing changed then and you can bet nothing will change this time.

These are the same types claiming no King, while worshipping "Hamilton" as some sort of founder. I mean he was the guy that suggested a president for life, etc. 

So Far No Recession

It's been awhile since last post, as I have been very busy.

First up, the CPI report. My personal CPI was 2.4%, which matched the CPI-U. The CPI-W edged up to 2.2%, and the forecast of COLA jumped up quite a bit. 

Yep the forecast numbers have moved upward. Likely to continue upward movement, as the jump in crude prices, will likely shove the index up +0.05%. 

The PPI edged up and got some publicity, which was lacking the previous 2 down months. In any case, the PPI stands at 148.072, compared to last month's 147.884. It had peaked in February at 148.347.

As alluded to earlier... crude prices are jumping, with the likelihood of soon seeing a 10¢ a gallon rise at the pump. How much higher is dependent upon the Middle East, at this point.

The next report of interest, will be the advance retail sales. Projections have that number slipping a bit, which is not inflation adjusted. Therefore a bit lower than the projection.