Transitory, Good for Average Americans, A Real Problem!

Over the past year and a half, inflation has moved from being transitory, to being possibly good for average Americans and bad for the rich… and now generally seen as bad and possibly long term or seeing a period of stagflation.

Most of that depends on perspective, as someone like me considers inflation to be mostly bad. 

The problem seems to be the idea that prices will reach a level that will crimp the consumer’s zeal for purchasing and then creating a recession. Are we there yet?

Probably not, as bountiful stimulus checks offset much of the inflationary impact of the past year. By stimulus checks, I am referring to the Spring 2021 $1,400 checks, which coincided with the mass introduction of covid vaccines and a general feeling of the bad times being in the rear-view mirror.

Now the consumer is using more and more debt to continue their spending habits, just as interest rates are ticking up. The assumption being to buy stuff now, before the price escalates. Naturally the expectation is the increase in prices will outweigh the added interest burden. 

Borrowing from the bank might make that true, but credit cards are a loser, in my opinion. I can see no scenario where inflation would outpace credit card rates. Yet, this is the area that is now being expanded by card holders. How much longer can that continue?

As for general inflation, I would expect food to continue the rise, as climate, wars, fertilizer costs, etc. will continue for at least another year. Food costs are approximately 14% of average household spending. THAT average household total spending annually is now running about $47,000. If you are spending less than that, then quite likely your food costs are a much higher percentage of expenses.

Energy makes up about 8% of those expenses, although gasoline runs about half that figure. I can not imagine much relief in that area before fall. Currently the short-term prognosis is average U.S. retail to rise to $4.50 per gallon, which is slightly above current retail. We are just now entering the “summer” driving season, so I can only expect this to go higher. 

What about the rest? I cannot imagine a situation where the current inflation is not passed onto the broader economy. Inflation may slow in these areas, but certainly will not reverse any time soon. 

Then there is the beginning of shortages, which was China’s lockdowns of 2020. We seem to forget this period of hoarding as there were shortages of vital components for our industries. China has been battling lockdowns over the past couple of months… that are more widespread than 2020. This is a rather large variable, as they come out of lockdown and all those ships start moving to ports elsewhere.

I have an uneasy feeling about many things but need to just chill for a while. 

Producer Price Index for April 2022

The Producer Price Index as released by the BLS, this A.M. 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 1.6 percent in March and 1.1 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 11.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

In April, the rise in the index for final demand is primarily attributable to a 1.3-percent advance in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand construction increased 4.0 percent, while prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in April after increasing 0.9 percent in March. For the 12 months ended in April, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.9 percent.

The final demand annual rate slipped from last month, and the month to month slid to lowest since December of 2020, at 0.518%. 

Not everything was even, as processed foods (consumer) jumped 1.36% MoM. Finished consumer energy goods, slipped ever so slightly. Hard to imagine, but it was true. Not so true for May... at this point. 

Kicking out the energy and food sector, everything else rose 1.03% MoM. (1.1% last month.) Better but not truly encouraging. On a year over year basis... this category stands at 6.9% and last month was 7.1%. November through this report reflected this numbers... 7.0%, 7.0%, 6.9%, 6.7%, 7.1%, 6.9%.

Not exactly indicative of any relief in consumer pricing. I think we can expect some more increases in energy for this month and food appears to be heading up for quite a period of time. 

Maybe Tuesday's retail report will shed more light on direction. 

 

 

Breakdown of CPI DATA and Real Earnings, April 2022

 

The BLS report for April...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

From last month...

I can fairly confidently (and sadly) state that April numbers due out in May, will likely be north of 8.0%, such as between 8.0% and 8.5%.

So it was 8.3%, or more accurately... 8.26%. That is nothing to brag about, as it bites hard.  

Here is the chart for various inflation figures...

I am drifting upward from 6.4% annual to 6.7%.

While the headline CPI slipped from 8.5% to 8.3%, my own CPI rose. This is largely due to food prices, as having "hoarded" many items and currently reducing the inventory... more pantry items come into play. Additionally, certain medical costs and supplies have edged up a bit more than previous periods. 

The April Earnings Report from the BLS...

WOW... Since February of 2020, an increase of one penny.

The slide has slowed, at least since last month. But can it continue?

Difficult to see how inflation would slow for May, as I think food prices will continue the upward spiral and energy, which was flat to slightly down in April, appears to be ratcheting up again. Of course, there might be some slowing in other areas, but is so hard to gauge. 

My best guess is 7.9%~8.2% for the May reading which comes out in June.

Now for the really, way too early prediction for C.O.L.A. which is officially announced in October AND is based on average CPI-W 3rd quarter year over year... 6.9%~7.2%. Yeah, I know that is not up to par with current inflation rates, but the big money is betting on inflation really cooling in the 2nd half of the year, which starts in July. Possibly even some demand destruction, so it will be interesting to watch. 

The PPI comes out tomorrow and might provide some indication of tapering.

Do Politicians Really Lie??

(Pulled this out of the old dustbin).

I suspect that current day politicians aren't the prolific liars of the days of yore. Bear with me a minute.

In days of yore, politicians heaped praise on themselves and lauded themselves on the wonderful jobs they have done and the great things they will accomplish in the future. A lot of lying took place.

In our current environment, politicians still do those things, but the real meat is in attacking the opponent with smears, etc. Unfortunately, most of these attacks on the character of their opponents are quite likely true.

Granted it is only my opinion, but based on that last paragraph... I consider today's politicians more honest than those of the past.

That is NOT to be construed as politicians of today being more honest, trustworthy, or ethical. Quite the opposite.

All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. 

The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. 

On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. - H.L Mencken ?1920?

That was from nearly 100 years ago and while some people might look at some of the recent elections and nod their heads in agreement... it should be noted that most of Mencken's quote are very past tense.

Politicians have become more adept at avoiding the truth, massaging the truth and spinning the truth.

Just sayin...

Funny, Strange, ODD, and Disinformation!

Where France's Macron buys his suits is front page news on one of the many international news websites I peruse. 

Germany's Chancellor has done another about face, which has left the columnists spinning, trying to keep up.

Europe is cooperating on gas, which suggests some sort of united front, but really ends up with several countries in Europe not cooperating and even one stating they will veto. I got to look up "cooperating", in the dictionary. Hungary claims there are 10 countries using the Rubles for Energy scheme.

Previously, Germany got the blame for obstinance regarding sanctions, but any meaningful sanctions have seen the EU bloc in disarray. Conveniently, the Germans are now pushing back by laying blame on "other" members of the EU. No doubt they will eventually coalesce their blame shifting and lay all this at the feet of Americans. Some things never change. 

Pelosi has been to Ukraine and is seen posing with Zelensky. Is it one of those selfies Zelensky was so critical of?

India is on pace to have a record wheat crop. Oh wait, India is undergoing a massive heat wave which may dramatically limit the wheat crop. 

Musk buys twitter and Homeland Security announces, "Disinformation Governance Board". DGB... not to be confused with KGB, which was a completely different committee. What qualifies as disinformation, misinformation, etc.? Who decides when a lie is no longer a lie, or when the truth is no longer the truth?

Speaking of disinformation... CNN is boldly proclaiming "3 Signs that Prices Could Soon Come Down." Prices coming down would be a sign of "deflation". The rate of inflation might come down, but prices... not so much. But it is CNN, so excuse the confusion or is this what the KGB DGB will soon remedy? Not intentionally leaving out FOX, MSNBC, et al, but it is way too much.

I keep reading where China's economy may be stalling, but until China says it is... it isn't. I fully expect them to say they are meeting targets. <wink> <wink>

A lot of concern about U.S. farmers cutting back on fertilizer and the potential for much lower crop yields as a result. The big farmers bought their fertilizers and inputs and had it all delivered by December 31st. Granted the big farmers does not equate to all farmers, but the weather is still the biggest factor. That weather has not been very cooperative at the start of this planting season.

This nugget from a Deutsche Welle opinion piece, regarding North Korea...

Pyongyang claims the most advanced weapon in its armory can carry multiple warheads and has a range of more than 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles), putting the entire continental US within striking distance.  

Note that the continental US is singled out. That distance puts all of Asia, Europe, Oceania, the North American Continent, most of Antarctica, most of Africa, and South America above the equator. It would not be difficult to understand the continental U.S. would be the main objective, but the wording seems to indicate only the U.S., while ignoring fallout, etc. 

Run out of things to ponder, so time to wrap this up. 

NATO and the Western Alliance

 

Where to start? I really don't know and at times this might seem like a rant, so bear with me. 

We are being told that the NATO alliance has never been stronger but is that true. There is a lot of posturing in favor of NATO, but what are the real opinions of Europeans, Canadians, and Americans.

In 2019, PEW research published the results of their survey titled "NATO Seen Favorably Across Member States," with the subheading of "Many in member countries express reservations about fulfilling Article 5’s collective defense obligations."

Maybe I am misinterpreting the results, but it would seem that much of the public is opposed to their own military engaging on behalf of another member. I suspect this is due to the one- and only-time article V was invoked. It becomes difficult to determine the thought processes of those giving their opinions.

At that time, I would have suspected they meant if the U.S. was again attacked, but recent events suggest if any NATO member was attacked. The PEW Research addressed this in 2019 with the question... 

The expectation is for the U.S. to carry the load. This idea is firmly planted, in my opinion. Certainly, polls taken today might suggest something else, but is the respondent simply saying what is a safe answer?

The problem with all of this, is the U.S. might be able to do the heavy lifting, but at what cost and who bears the brunt of the criticism for any collateral damage. Collateral damage would include such things as economic turmoil, due to energy supply curtailment. Pause and think about that.

I have no doubt that European Citizens would blame the U.S. as it seems to be their historical go to when anything bad happens ... and unfortunately sometimes it is correct (rarely taking responsibility for their own mistakes). It would likely lead to the collapse of NATO. There would likely be a hue and cry over what the U.S. had wrought and lead the Americans to turn very negative towards NATO... to the point of opting out. Not that far away, in my humble opinion. A great many Americans are already questioning NATO's value.

Therefore, the U.S. must walk a razor thin line between supporting Ukraine and avoiding Russia cutting off energy supplies. 

Like a lot of folks, I originally thought Russia just wanted Ukraine, but I suspect the main objective is dissolution of NATO and severing U.S. ties with Europe. 

I realize this might seem far-fetched, but given the attitudes of various countries, towards the United States, ...it moves the needle towards that real possibility.

Unfortunately, there is a much bigger picture at play... which would be the Western Alliance, which in this case would also include some countries in the Pacific. In that regard, I am referring to a way of life we have become accustomed to.

Indecisive action is leaving the door open to further divisions and giving the enemies to our way of life, an opening to seize upon.

No, this was not a positive and uplifting blog article. I am old and won't likely see the end of all this, but I have children and grandchildren for which I worry. 

Hurrah! I Am Once Again a Troll!

I think I was just called a troll. Not to go into detail, but one of the social anti-social websites I frequent, had a new thread on a topic that has in the past created substantial disagreement. The OP was clearly coming out on one side and clearly stated everyone with a differing opinion should have their comments blocked and/or threads blocked.

Being the first to arrive on the scene I suggested to the OP that “IF’ they were looking for attention, they had hit the jackpot”.

The response from the OP was priceless, in my opinion. I even voted it a very happy smiley face and did not respond.

Which must have further provoked this individual, as they started going on about how important they were in their past life. Apparently, I was supposed to give a darn, although I saw nothing that impressed me. 

Therefore, I once again voted it a very happy face and refused to respond. As I had only asked “if’ they were seeking attention”, I must have struck close to home. As for attention, the OP got attention and not always in a nice way.

But I have once again been called a Troll and once again I am very proud of the honor. It has truly been a good day. 👍