PCE Revisions and End of Month Inflation Results (All Reports)

So here it is...

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This also, includes the latest revisions in the PCE release. I include the previous month's report to indicate the revisions.

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You will notice some sharp upward revisions, compared to last month. That +0.6% M/M increase was after the major adjustment in December's numbers. Without that December adjustment, that +0.6% would have been much higher. 

Don't worry too much, as these numbers get adjusted on a regular basis. It does serve to point out that inflation is not falling off a cliff.

The good news would be the "trimmed mean PCE". It actually slid -0.1%, after holding at 4.7% for the preceding 5 months. 

The BEA Report. The Dallas FED Report. For a breakout of "trimmed"... 

• Components included and excluded from this month's Trimmed Mean

It is an Excel download. Of the 54 items not trimmed, I utilize 7 (13%.) Of the 121 trimmed out, I utilize 42 (34.7%.)

Oh well, my own CPI is 5.5%. Using the trimmed mean, it is 4.9% v the FED's 4.6%. 

I would write about the GDP, but it gets revised on a regular basis. Next month will be revised and the annual revision in July will take place for all. Sometimes, as much as 3.0% change from the original advance release.

Gasoline consumption through week of Feb-17-2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were down 2.9¢ this week, to $3.393. A year ago, the price was $3.535. 

The streak for lower prices is now in its seventh day. Hate to jinx this, but it is possible, the average price could make it to $3.25 over the next couple of weeks.

The seasonal consumption is edging up. (This is a four week moving average). It is +2.2% above one year ago levels. However, the national average is -4.0% below same period.

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If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +92.1M barrels. If you saw last week's report, that is up another 2.0M barrels. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be.

Where will pump prices be next week? My inclination would be a continuation of ever so slight decreases. 

Crude Inventories continue to build- Feb 23 2023

Today's EIA.gov report. 

Crude stocks up again, +7.6M barrels, from last week; Distillates up +2.7M Barrels; and Gasoline slid -1.9M barrels. 

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WTI at $75.76, compared to $78.83, one week ago, and $90.39 a year ago. 

Refinery output slightly decreased on this report, and still slightly below one year ago levels. 

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 475M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. 5.4M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks are quite healthy, compared to this time last year (2nd highest- 2016), and the highest since May 28, 2021.

The Administration has suggested another SPR release, but the SPR is currently unchanged, for the past 6 weeks.

Cooking With Natural Gas Feb 16 2023

I had briefly considered a seasonal hiatus regarding the NatGas reports, but something popped up in my in basket, telling me to hold on for at least another 6 weeks. The Groundhog didn't lie, just missed the timing!!

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday.

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Again, drops in supplies were evident, yet still holding above year ago levels. West Coast and Mountain regions being the exceptions.

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Looking good so far.

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Prices keep slipping everywhere. Even in the UK, the price range is £1,800 ~ £2,300 (annual), compared to last summer's £3,600 ~ £5,400 (annual). 

Prices are low due to decreased demand, due to much warmer temps, etc. Prices are so low, the need for added storage is being reduced, companies are considering cutting back on drilling, etc.

Spring is in the air and everything looks great. Why am I being so sarcastic?

Climate change leads many to think solely in terms of global warming. On average, that would be correct. But climate change is all about extreme weather events. We acknowledge these events when it is due to significant flooding, droughts, hurricanes, extreme cold snaps, etc. 

However, we seem to disregard those mild temps. Much of Europe is in an extreme weather event. Law of averages will level that out, AND possibly in the near future. 

Good luck!!

Today's PPI Release... February 16th, 2022

The BLS has released the January Producer Price Index Report. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.2 percent in December 2022 and advanced 0.3 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended January 2023. 

In January, a 1.2-percent rise in prices for final demand goods led the advance in the final demand index. Prices for final demand services also moved higher, increasing 0.4 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.6 percent in January 2023, the largest advance since moving up 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in January 2023, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 4.5 percent. 

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So the numbers were higher than expectations. I think someone under estimated those numbers. Last month's intermediates suggested a pop in final demand for this month. My estimate was wrong at +0.8% for the month. That was a miss to the high side. 

Next month is likely to surprise to the low side, possibly even a monthly negative, with annual at the +4.4% range.

Probably wrong again, but hopefully, to the high side... again.

Gasoline consumption through week of Feb-10-2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were down 2.7¢ this week, to $3.418. A year ago, the price was $3.498. There were intermittent problems with refineries in different regions, that may have impacted current pump prices.

The 17 day streak of falling prices, ended today. Maybe another streak downward will soon start.

The seasonal consumption is edging up. (This is a four week moving average). It is -0.9% below one year ago levels. 

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If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +90.1M barrels. If you saw last week's report, that is up 1.3M barrels. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be.

Where will pump prices be next week? My inclination would be slightly lower, but that might be wishful thinking.

Crude Inventories continue to build- Feb 15 2023

Today's EIA.gov report. 

Crude stocks soared, up +16.2M barrels, from last week; Distillates slipped -1.2M Barrels; and Gasoline up +2.3M barrels. 

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WTI at $79.23, compared to $78.47, one week ago, and $89.81 a year ago. 

Refinery output slightly increased on this report, but still slightly below one year ago levels. 

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 470M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. After two weeks of net imports, the margin is back to net export of +4.7M barrels.

Overall, crude stocks are quite healthy, compared to this time last year (3rd highest- 2016/2017), and the highest since June 4 2021.

The Administration has also indicated another release from the SPR, as mandated by law. The impact on gasoline prices would be slight, as refining is the bottleneck at this point... not supply of crude.