Here we go...
Trump currently holds a 44.9% to 42.7% lead in the polls. Of course the polls are always wrong, even though Biden led from the start in 2020, although the start was in spring of that year... so a bit to go.
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, November Report.
First up should be the revisions...
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.7 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2022.
The inflation adjusted chart looks like this...
Just some charts to summarize today's report...
The BLS has released the November Producer Price Index Report. (historical releases)
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.4 percent in October and rose 0.4 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 0.9 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
In November, the indexes for both final demand goods and for final demand services were unchanged.
Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods was unchanged in November after dropping 1.4 percent in October. In November, price increases of 0.6 percent for final demand foods and 0.2 percent for final demand goods less foods and energy offset a 1.2-percent decrease in the index for final demand energy.
Let's revisit that paragraph. What did the -1.2% decrease in the index for final demand energy... offset?
Within final demand goods in November, prices for chicken eggs jumped 58.8 percent. The indexes for fresh fruits and melons, utility natural gas, electric power, and carbon steel scrap also moved higher. In contrast, prices for gasoline fell 4.1 percent.
So gasoline (-4.1%), which is typically moving into seasonal lows, is the reason for that -1.2% decrease, which offsets a bunch of rises in food (+0.6%) and other energy components.
Not to nitpick, but if gasoline is having that impact, and is moving into seasonal lows, which might continue through the December release... could reverse beginning after Christmas, just like last year.
For those of us that like to eat food, that annualized 7.2% increase in food is going to weigh on the budget of many of us, unless we decide to eat less and lose "weight".
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
I think the numbers were somewhat in line with everyone's expectations.
I do find the food portion of the darn thing a bit intriguing.
Oddly, when adjusting the index to "average" household spending the food at home has jumped 29.6%, in current dollars.
What really catches the eye, is the -8.5% drop in current dollars for food away from home. This would be cafeterias, restaurants, and other places "away" from home.
This type of comparison with weightings against the index, further indicates a drop in current dollar spending for food in all categories... compared to rate of inflation.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Here is a graph...
Here is another stab at the 2024 election. Trump appears to be ahead with polling numbers of 44.1%. compared to Biden's 43.3%. Very tight indeed, until polling of individual states relative to electoral votes is considered.
Took a hard look at the virtual locks, in regards to electoral votes, which resulted with Biden having 212 electoral votes locked up, and Trump with 149.
When I say "locked up", I am referring to places like California, Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, etc. It should be obvious whether they are blue or red. So stencil them in.
However, in 2024, there are some hard leans, as well.
Florida has Trump with a 9 point lead in the polls. Consider where the polls were in 2016 and 2020, the compare to results. That 9 point lead is significant.
Again, Georgia was not really that far out of whack in the 2016 and 2020 polls, so the polls for this year having Trump with a 7 point lead... is quite meaningful.
That trend continues with the other "hard leans" listed, which results in Trump holding a 251~216 lead at this point.
So Trump just needs 19 of 71 remaining EVs. The opposite of that... Biden needs 54 of the remaing EVs.
Turning it around might be possible for Biden.
However, Ukraine is still an issue on his watch, as well as that Middle East mess. Not seeing any upward lift being provided by those.
Economy, could be an issue, but not a lot of upward lift to be seen in this area. Sure, GDP was up 5.2% annualized, but don't forget a massive adjustment was just undertaken, by moving the numbers from 2012 dollars... to 2017 dollars. I alluded to this in a previous article.
On January 25, 2024, the BEA will likely report something in the 1.5%~2.0% annualized GDP growth. A lot of whining will take place about how the economy has gone from robust to anemic. Both are rather silly, but the resultant public opinion will not likely provide any huge boost for Biden.
That report will be followed about 3 weeks later, with the CPI report for January.
There is the inflation issue, of which will be largely cheered with both the November (DEC release) and December (JAN Release) data releases. Both of which will indicate a shallowing month to month rate of inflation.
However, both months will be a result of significantly lower gasoline prices, which is a seasonal norm. While making up a small percentage of consumer spending, the impact will be enough to bring month to month to zero and very likely negative.
Once again, that news turns south with that February release of January's CPI data. Why? Those falling gasoline prices will be in the rear view mirror, and will be rising... We are getting into the heart of political silly season by then.
Frankly, rising gas prices will bring out the grocery prices are much higher crowd. It may well be, but this is about the attitude of voters... which won't be uplifting for the Biden campaign. Voters tend to remember things from days past, when they look at the grocery receipts and those numbers on the gasoline pump.
So not a lot of upside going forward, imho... for a Biden rebound.
Remember, the perception needs to change for Biden to reverse his current dismal ratings.
Just some charts to summarize today's report...
Reviewed this weeks EIA report and observed the current status of inventories. Oddly, although domestic consumption is down from last year,...
