Here we go...
Trump currently holds a 44.9% to 42.7% lead in the polls. Of course the polls are always wrong, even though Biden led from the start in 2020, although the start was in spring of that year... so a bit to go.
The current problem is Biden is not only trailing in nationwide polling, but in those "toss-up" states. A long haul at the moment, imho.
This is the current outlook, when adjusting for polling discrepancies in the last two elections.
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