Yes, House prices are more than in 1980

I ran across an article and thread about housing costs compared to 1980. Generally, it follows the median price and interest rates.

I used, the following as sources for data...

• stlouisfed.org
• census.gov
• bls.gov

I'll start with the median house price (stlouisfed.org), accompanied by median house size (square feet-census.gov).

WOW! that is a big jump. According to BLS.gov, that 1,600 square foot home of 1980, should cost about $252,521.37 today.

Yes but the houses are much bigger today... so that $252,521.37 for that 1,600 square foot home should bounce to $378,782.055 for the 2,400 square foot home. 

Still about $42,000 over priced, unless something about that median home has changed.

The Census Bureau, tells us that the average double of bathrooms have doubled over that period. Wow! Garages are more prevalent and larger.

Once you wrap your head around that, it does not seem so unreasonable. However, in a time when families are smaller... why are houses so much bigger?

Is it need v want? More than likely, it is want.

Of course, there is the "build it and they will come" mentality. Afterall, developers realized that a 100 X 100 lot requires the same investment in storm/sanity sewers; utilities; streets; lighting, etc. A larger house would gather a larger profit... than a smaller house. 

Municipalities in many cases... set development standards on type of housing, etc. With an eye on real estate tax revenue. The bigger house just generates more tax revenue. 

And not just from the house.

Which house would more likely have a fairly new family sedan such as a Camry and which would more likely have a Lexus. Compare the type of boats, etc. The list goes on.

So yes, houses cost more, but I would offer the suggestion that pride and appearance prevails over needs.

This Week in Petroleum Summary May 22nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline rose +0.4¢ for the week, but remains  up +7.1¢ from year ago level. Consumption did edge up again per this past report, although still trailing year ago levels.

Inventories were mixed, with crude inventory up +1.8M barrels; Distillates up +379K barrels; Gasoline down -945K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +8.5M barrels.

Refinery output continues to lag behind year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen slightly from last week's $25.35, to $26.03. Gasoline at $16.13 from last week's $15.97. Distillates rose to $9.90, compared to last week's $9.39.

Despite today's uptick at the pumps, the trend suggests prices drifting lower.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVI

Really not seeing any major shifts, although the Minnesota margin widened ever so slightly. Still too difficult to read.

The unadjusted polls indicate no major shifts.

It does appear the numbers are slipping for Trump, but Biden is slipping more. Previous blog indicated 43.9%~43.4%, infavor of Trump. Trump is down -0.1%, with Biden down -0.3%.

In any case, the electoral map indicates 312 EVs for Trump, and 216 Evs for Biden. Minnesota's 10 remains in toss-up territory. 

We are still 170 days from the election, and things could change... although a major shift is required, when evaluating previous election polls at this time, compared to results.

My electricity bills over time (May, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

On a 12 month rolling average, my costs are down -7.1% from previous year.

While it is improving... long gone are the days of less than $100 per month moving average.

This Week in Petroleum Summary May 15th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -3.3¢ for the week, but remains +7.2¢ from year ago level. Consumption did edge up again per this past report.

Inventories were down across the board, except total petroleum + products, with crude down -2.5M barrels; Distillates down 45K; Gasoline down -235K.

Refinery output continues to lag, compared to year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has dropped from last week's $26.46, to $25.35. Gasoline at $15.97 from last week's $16.43. Distillates slid to $9.39, compared to last week's $10.03.

A drift lower on pump prices is easy to imagine at this point. Things can change rapidly. It does seem to indicate consumption running below year ago levels and the why... is the question in my mind.

5/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for April Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.2 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, but up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above April 2023. Total sales for the February 2024 through April 2024 period were up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2024 to March 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.6 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from March 2024, but up 2.7 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 7.5 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 5.5 percent (±2.1 percent) from April 2023.

WOW! The revisions were substantial and long term...

Can't remember such a sea of downward revisions.

The result, when adjusted for inflation...

Whatever the reasons for the downward revisions, the trend line for actual purchases, when adjusted for inflation is slipping downward.

There clearly is a demand drop, but whether due to inflation causing budgets to tighten... who really knows.

It should be noted the following groupings, do seem to be waning on both annual and month to month...

• Furniture and home furniture stores
• Health and personal care stores
• Sporting goods, hobby, musical etc.

For whatever reason, we do seem to be cutting back in some areas.

 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - May 15th, 2024 (part 2)

On to the Real Earnings.

There seems to be a downward trend, across the board, even with downward revisions of previous months data. An increase of 2¢ from February, 2020. It is important to adhere to that timing, as it was before the disruption of the workforce, cue to covid.

It seems that real earnings have slipped from the December/January timeframe.

All the other reports seem to indicate a shift in purchasing choices.