BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - June 12th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Finally an uptick in real earnings. Depending on when you consider turmoil in the labor market, due to covid, the hourly rate is either 13¢ or 1¢ above that period.

All in all, a good report, though the turmoil between then and now still lingers, imho.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - June 12th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

More than offsetting a decline in gasoline, the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The index for food increased 0.1 percent in May. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index was unchanged. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, led by a 3.6-percent decrease in the gasoline index. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.2% Y/Y and 0.3% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

Yep, can't say I am happy with my own inflation rate edging up, but tis life.

In the way too early COLA projections...

Another way of looking at things, is my personal inflation rate is now moving above the projected COLA increase. That has not happened in several years, so I am even less happy.

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 12th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -4.9¢ for the week, and is now below year ago levels, by -14¢, or -3.9%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, bu -2.3%.

Inventories rose across the board, with crude inventory up +3.7M barrels; Distillates up +881K barrels; Gasoline up +2.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +11.8M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slipped from last week's $23.97, to $22.87. Gasoline at $13.36 from last week's $14.75. Distillates to $9.51, compared to last week's $9.21.

While both gasoline and diesel pump price averages edged up today, the outlook is still a bit downward, although bottom appears near. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 5th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -7.2¢ for the week, and is now below year ago levels, by -4.9¢, or -1.4%. Consumption slipped... per this past report, and remains below year ago levels.

Inventories were mixed, with crude inventory down -3.8M barrels; Distillates up +3.2M barrels; Gasoline up +2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +14.4M barrels.

Refinery output was steady and above year ago levels

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen from last week's $23.19, to $23.97. Gasoline at $14.75 from last week's $14.35. Distillates to $9.21, compared to last week's $8.84.

The trends suggest a continuing drift downward in pump prices, imho. 

What will be interesting over the next couple of weeks, will be whether consumption continues to ease in diesel consumption. What I sometimes overlook, while following gasoline prices, is those diesel prices. With sharp inventory build above year ago levels and consumption slipping... there appears a lack of demand. 

But why?

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVII

The race is tightening a bit on the national level, with Trump edge of 0.7% from two weeks ago, now standing at 0.2%. This is tighter than fivethirtyeight, which has the Trump edge a 1.3%.

The current comparison to same time four years ago...

The national average is currently far different than anytime during the 2020 election cycle, as well as the actual election.

As for the Electoral Vote projections, this has tightened a bit, but still favors Trump. This is due to Michigan slipping into toss-up territory.

Trump still holds a 297-216 lead in Electoral Votes, with the threshold of 270, needed to win. There are still 156 days until the election. 

A couple of weeks until the next update, unless major changes... which I do not expect.

Review of April 2024 data, 1Q GDP revisions, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary is not so bad, actually.

The best that can be said, is inflation has stabilized, with a further slowing in the cards, by end of the year.

What is striking, is the downward tilt in disposable income AND personal consumption expenditures.

If you carefully look, the previous month was also revised downward, for those two items.

If spending is slowing, it would follow that demand is slowing, which would/should... slow inflation going forward.

As for the GDP revision... it was not unexpected. The story has now become the service sector. Not terribly worrisome, but what caught my eye, is the trade imbalance, which jumped. 

Oh well, that's a wrap for May.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- May, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of April data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat with the exception of April-2024. That data was calculated by me]

Inflation across these countries are now very similar, after some issues early on.

A reminder, that U.S. inflation rose upward in advance of those other countries.

While it has been popular, of late to say inflation was everywhere... it wasn't until it was. The period between was called "transistory".

There were factors unique to the U.S., as well as those other countries in the EU, as well as the U.K.

Unique to the E.U. and U.K. were natural gas issues over Ukraine/Russia

Unique to the U.S. were...

• Rapid roll out of vaccines
• Proclamations of Covid being whipped.
• Massive stimulus mailed directly to households, plus government programs
• Refinery outages  in Texas.
• Am eminent dock workers strike, that didn't take place.

Common to both...

• Low petroleum and petroleum product inventories
• Container congestion, due to empty containers in all the wrong places.
• European decision to curtail NG and petroleum imports from Russia.

So the finger pointing becomes clear, when comparing the conditions that were in place, the actions taken + direct results, etc.