My electricity bills over time (June, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The June bill came in lower than the past 3 years and down -8.4% from one year ago. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

The rolling average is down -8.2% from one year ago. Another hopeful sign.

As for average by year, (note 2024 only has 6 months).

In theory, the remainder of 2024, should pull that number down. How much?

I should also point out... my weighting for electricity, is higher than the CPI. That is due to my overall expenditures being much lower than the Statistical CPI household. Which also means that movement in electricity bills have greater impact on my overall spending.

The weather is set to really heat up, so next month's electricity bill will likely come in much higher. I won't sweat it too much, as the thermostat will stay the same. 

PPI June 2024 release with May 2024 Data

The BLS has released the May, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

The May decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.8-percent decline in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services were unchanged in May following a 0.5-percent increase in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.2 percent.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.4% year to year, is the same as last month, which was the highest since April, 2023. Food continued to edge down. It has not edged down at the consumer level, but fingers crossed.

Certainly some tempering of inflation, but there have been periods of tempering before.

As for the overall report card, there were some areas of concern in the PPI report, with services still holding the line.

Not sure how another monthly decline of -0.2% will take place. Flat maybe, with another +2.2% annual reading.

In any case, we had a -0.2% decline, following last month's +0.5% increase, which happened to be the highest y/y increase since April, 2022, and is matched by this release at +2.2%, as well.

The enthusiasm over inflation's demise, might be a bit premature, imho.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - June 12th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Finally an uptick in real earnings. Depending on when you consider turmoil in the labor market, due to covid, the hourly rate is either 13¢ or 1¢ above that period.

All in all, a good report, though the turmoil between then and now still lingers, imho.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - June 12th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

More than offsetting a decline in gasoline, the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The index for food increased 0.1 percent in May. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index was unchanged. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, led by a 3.6-percent decrease in the gasoline index. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.2% Y/Y and 0.3% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

Yep, can't say I am happy with my own inflation rate edging up, but tis life.

In the way too early COLA projections...

Another way of looking at things, is my personal inflation rate is now moving above the projected COLA increase. That has not happened in several years, so I am even less happy.

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 12th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -4.9¢ for the week, and is now below year ago levels, by -14¢, or -3.9%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, bu -2.3%.

Inventories rose across the board, with crude inventory up +3.7M barrels; Distillates up +881K barrels; Gasoline up +2.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +11.8M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slipped from last week's $23.97, to $22.87. Gasoline at $13.36 from last week's $14.75. Distillates to $9.51, compared to last week's $9.21.

While both gasoline and diesel pump price averages edged up today, the outlook is still a bit downward, although bottom appears near. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 5th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -7.2¢ for the week, and is now below year ago levels, by -4.9¢, or -1.4%. Consumption slipped... per this past report, and remains below year ago levels.

Inventories were mixed, with crude inventory down -3.8M barrels; Distillates up +3.2M barrels; Gasoline up +2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +14.4M barrels.

Refinery output was steady and above year ago levels

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen from last week's $23.19, to $23.97. Gasoline at $14.75 from last week's $14.35. Distillates to $9.21, compared to last week's $8.84.

The trends suggest a continuing drift downward in pump prices, imho. 

What will be interesting over the next couple of weeks, will be whether consumption continues to ease in diesel consumption. What I sometimes overlook, while following gasoline prices, is those diesel prices. With sharp inventory build above year ago levels and consumption slipping... there appears a lack of demand. 

But why?

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVII

The race is tightening a bit on the national level, with Trump edge of 0.7% from two weeks ago, now standing at 0.2%. This is tighter than fivethirtyeight, which has the Trump edge a 1.3%.

The current comparison to same time four years ago...

The national average is currently far different than anytime during the 2020 election cycle, as well as the actual election.

As for the Electoral Vote projections, this has tightened a bit, but still favors Trump. This is due to Michigan slipping into toss-up territory.

Trump still holds a 297-216 lead in Electoral Votes, with the threshold of 270, needed to win. There are still 156 days until the election. 

A couple of weeks until the next update, unless major changes... which I do not expect.