PPI August 2024 release with July 2024 Data

The BLS has released the August, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of July.  (historical releases)

The forecast was +2.3% year over year. Which can be done by rounding down +2.27%, and voila +2.2%... or softer than forecast. The month to month was forecast at +0.2%, which can be achieved by revising the months of March, through June... UPWARD. 

Using the prior month's published data and comparing to this month... yields an advance of +0.18% which could be rounded down to +0.1%. 

It is not uncommon for data to be revised, which is why I download all the reports. I do get suspicious, but can prove nothing.

So (with all revisions)...

Feel free to review last month's blog and check for the revisions. Hint: June was 144.402.

All in all, it was still a good report, but expectations should be tempered in my opinion. The report card with the +2.27% rounded to nearest tenth.

There were winners and losers in the report, but some areas remain sticky. Here's something to chew on... Food was up +0.6% for last month, and energy was up +1.9%. TRADE was down -1.3%, which is where the services decline gets mentioned. 

That latter strikes me as being odd, as imports are heating up, as evidenced by container pricing and rush to U.S. ports... ahead of a potential dock strike at end of September. 

Just saying, not every thing is rosy!

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 10th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump with 235 to 213 for Harris. The toss-ups are now at 90. The latter being Wisconsin narrowly sliding into toss-up range.

Throwing the toss-ups into the mix, results in Trump 312:226 Harris.

Red TU (toss-up) means leaning republican, although within the MOE (margin of error). Blue TU means leaning democrat, within the margin of error. 

The margin of error is based on weighted MOEs of published polls. Which widened this past week.

The ERR, is a weighted calculation based on error rate of polls versus election results, discounting their MOE for the past 4 presidential election cycles, where available. The ERR is also based on the minimum error rate, as well.

I have previously discussed some of the potential reasons for such rates of error.

The oddity of some states with a much higher rate of error from the same pollster, still escapes me. A pollster can nearly predict Georgia with accuracy, but the same pollster completely miss the mark in Wisconsin. 

The data is based on 60 polls, dated from July 25th, to August 9th. Not all states and districts have been polled since the upheaval in the race, but there is recognition of some blue states staying blue, as well as some red states staying red.

• AZ - 6
• CA - 1
• FL - 2
• GA - 6
• MI - 7
• MN - 1
• MT - 1
• NC - 4
• NH - 1
• NM - 1
• NY - 1
• OH - 1
• OR - 1
• PA - 13
• WA - 1
• WI - 8

Only 7 of these states, with 47 polls, currently fall into battleground status, out the 11 represented in the chart.

More polls can be expected in the coming week, but will likely be heavily tilted towards the so called battleground states.

Remember when Florida, Iowa and Texas were considered battleground states? Remember when Ohio was considered a bellwether state? Interesting terminology, that a wether was a castrated male sheep/goat of a flock, with a bell hung around its neck to lead the flock. Somehow, it does sound appropriate for elections! I digress!

This Week in Petroleum Summary August 7th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -3.3¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -37.0¢, or -9.7%. Days supply rose from 24.3, to 24.7. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were mixed across the board, with crude down -3.8M barrels; Distillates up +949K barrels; Gasoline up +1.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +1.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +736K barrels.

Despite the mix of draws, the total products is still +45.1M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slid from last week's $25.24, to $22.53. Gasoline at $13.19 from last week's $15.60. Distillates to $9.33, compared to last week's $9.64.

With the overall spread easing, gasoline inventories rose, and consumption seems to have levelled off.

Things can change in a hurry, but a continuing decrease in pump prices, seems a decent forecast.

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 4th Edition

It has been said that opinions are like a$$holes... everyone has one. The race has tightened, so pucker up!

Overall, Harris has taken the lead in national polling and the Electoral Vote count has tightened. Last week had the Trump count at 267, with Harris at 209.

It should be noted that polling data is severely lacking from non battleground states, as well as some battleground states. Realistically, only polling that began on or after 7-22, is considered. 54 polls of 15 states during that period, with 41 of those spread across just a handful of battleground states.

• Arizona - 5
• Georgia - 7
• California -2
• Florida -2
• Michigan -7
• Maine - 1
• Minnesota - 3
• North Carolina -2
• New Hampshire -3
• Nevada - 3
• Ohio - 1
• Oregon -1
• Pennsylvania -11
• Washington -1
• Wisconsin - 5

So a lot of wiggle room, although the race still favors Trump... as the path to a victory is wider than Harris' path. 

As for a debate, I suspect the Harris campaign is giddy with the recent surge in support, but as time wears on, the need for a debate will become clearer. Attempting to hijack what was billed as a Biden v Trump, and magically appear as a Harris v Trump debate... is not as easy as forcing Biden to drop out, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 31st, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -2.1¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -26.5¢, or -7.1%. Days supply fell to 24.3, from 24.5. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days.

Inventories were mixed across the board, with crude down -3.4M barrels; Distillates up +1.5M barrels; Gasoline down -3.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -1.8M barrels, with the SPR rising +685K barrels.

Despite the across the board draw, the total products is still +53.3M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has edged up from last week's $25.05, to $25.24. Gasoline at $15.60 from last week's $14.91. Distillates to $9.64, compared to last week's $10.13.

While the spread moved upward, gasoline inventories fell, and consumption seems to have levelled off.. A sure sign of higher pump prices, except it also indicates pump prices in a narrow band.

A slight rise in gasoline pump prices seems to be in the offing, but it do so last week, as well.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 28th Edition

A lot can happen in 8 days. If you believe the media, Harris is surging, although it would appear that the numbers aren't much different than just before the debate. Trump leads with 267 EVs, to Harris at 209... with 270 being the magic number.

What is lacking now, that was not prior to debate... is enough data to give a clear analysis. There are many states that have not been polled this past week, but we can assume that some states such as California will be Blue, and some like my state of Kentucky... will be Red. 

There are a number of states that fall into the "battleground" definition. Texas and Florida are no longer in that realm, imho.

The issue of battleground states is important, as small numbers in some states, caused the election to move one way or another.

As an example...

A mere 42,918 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, moved Biden to 306 electoral votes, instead of the 269~269 tie. Nevada's 33,596 would have moved Trump back into the White House.

It's interesting to note that IF Trump had won that election, neither he nor Biden would be running for re-election this year. It would also be questionable if Harris would be anywhere on the horizon. Something to think about, imho.

So battleground states are important.

States with asterisks do not have enough polling data to really differentiate candidate status, imho, with the exception of North Carolina. The TU or Toss-up is colored to indicate the slight lean... based on current data. Data is from this past week. 

Also the yellow blocks indicate states with Kennedy on the ballot. Which again, has the democrats attempting to protect democracy by removing Kennedy from the ballot. This is going on in several states.

I would think additional polls will be revealed this coming week, so I would expect some changes. As for the ERR column... this is for error rating of previous election cycles. As an example and denoted in the 2020 election statistics chart, Wisconsin has historically under-polled for republicans over the past 4 election cycles. Why? I do not know. So a polling tie in Wisconsin would likely result in a decent lead for Trump and its 10 EVs. Just not yet. 

Georgia on the other hand, has a near spotless polling to election record. My initial reaction is to add Georgia's 16 EVs to the Trump column, but a bit more data would clear the air for me.

So, I am settling with the Trump - 267 ~ Harris - 209, for now.

Review of June 2024 data, 2Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers continue to be a concern... going forward.

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The 2nd quarter GDP came in above expectations at 2.8% annualized. I was puzzled by the slower growth in Services at 2.2% annualized, which helps explain the 2.3% annualized for personal consumption. Durable goods up 4.6% and nondurables at 1.4%, both annualized.

Overall a good report, but I would be a bit concerned if fixed investment can continue its expansion, which is equipment driven, while inventories keep building.

As for the PCE excluding food and energy... not much movement. Granted the market is anticipating a rate cut in September... and it might be warranted. A string of rate cuts might not be so warranted, imho. 

We can start the cycle again for next month, with the likelihood of CPI being at or slightly above this past month's reading.