This Week in Petroleum Summary August 14th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.4¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -40.6¢, or -10.5%. Days supply rose from 24.7, to 24.2. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were mixed across the board, with crude up +1.4M barrels; Distillates slid -1.7M barrels; Gasoline down -2.9M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -2.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +694K barrels.

Despite the mix of draws, the total products is still +49.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slid further from last week's $22.53, to $21.12. Gasoline at $12.44 from last week's $13.19. Distillates to $8.68, compared to last week's $9.33.

With the overall spread easing, it is difficult to imagine the pump prices not edging lower. 

Time to take a break and wait on tomorrow's Advance Retail. Money says prior months are revised downward, thus the advance can show an upswing. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - August 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining in the two preceding months. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent over the month, and the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. 

It was a bit below the expectations of 3.0% on the annual, and the 0.2% was seasonally adjusted up from the actual 0.116%. So not so bad, and in fact... fairly decent.

For the record: February 2021, 1.7%; March 2021, 2.6%. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.0% Y/Y, but slid -0.2% on the month (I'm happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

That's it for this month's CPI... maybe!

Uhoh!! Edited at 10:30PM, 8-14-2024. changes made to COLA projections, based on +0.1%~+0.2% August projection and September at -0.1%~+0.1%. The likelihood of 2.5% COLA is now very likely. imho.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - August 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.19 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $382.54, down from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.80. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 330.40. Down 50¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

PPI August 2024 release with July 2024 Data

The BLS has released the August, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of July.  (historical releases)

The forecast was +2.3% year over year. Which can be done by rounding down +2.27%, and voila +2.2%... or softer than forecast. The month to month was forecast at +0.2%, which can be achieved by revising the months of March, through June... UPWARD. 

Using the prior month's published data and comparing to this month... yields an advance of +0.18% which could be rounded down to +0.1%. 

It is not uncommon for data to be revised, which is why I download all the reports. I do get suspicious, but can prove nothing.

So (with all revisions)...

Feel free to review last month's blog and check for the revisions. Hint: June was 144.402.

All in all, it was still a good report, but expectations should be tempered in my opinion. The report card with the +2.27% rounded to nearest tenth.

There were winners and losers in the report, but some areas remain sticky. Here's something to chew on... Food was up +0.6% for last month, and energy was up +1.9%. TRADE was down -1.3%, which is where the services decline gets mentioned. 

That latter strikes me as being odd, as imports are heating up, as evidenced by container pricing and rush to U.S. ports... ahead of a potential dock strike at end of September. 

Just saying, not every thing is rosy!

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 10th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump with 235 to 213 for Harris. The toss-ups are now at 90. The latter being Wisconsin narrowly sliding into toss-up range.

Throwing the toss-ups into the mix, results in Trump 312:226 Harris.

Red TU (toss-up) means leaning republican, although within the MOE (margin of error). Blue TU means leaning democrat, within the margin of error. 

The margin of error is based on weighted MOEs of published polls. Which widened this past week.

The ERR, is a weighted calculation based on error rate of polls versus election results, discounting their MOE for the past 4 presidential election cycles, where available. The ERR is also based on the minimum error rate, as well.

I have previously discussed some of the potential reasons for such rates of error.

The oddity of some states with a much higher rate of error from the same pollster, still escapes me. A pollster can nearly predict Georgia with accuracy, but the same pollster completely miss the mark in Wisconsin. 

The data is based on 60 polls, dated from July 25th, to August 9th. Not all states and districts have been polled since the upheaval in the race, but there is recognition of some blue states staying blue, as well as some red states staying red.

• AZ - 6
• CA - 1
• FL - 2
• GA - 6
• MI - 7
• MN - 1
• MT - 1
• NC - 4
• NH - 1
• NM - 1
• NY - 1
• OH - 1
• OR - 1
• PA - 13
• WA - 1
• WI - 8

Only 7 of these states, with 47 polls, currently fall into battleground status, out the 11 represented in the chart.

More polls can be expected in the coming week, but will likely be heavily tilted towards the so called battleground states.

Remember when Florida, Iowa and Texas were considered battleground states? Remember when Ohio was considered a bellwether state? Interesting terminology, that a wether was a castrated male sheep/goat of a flock, with a bell hung around its neck to lead the flock. Somehow, it does sound appropriate for elections! I digress!

This Week in Petroleum Summary August 7th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -3.3¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -37.0¢, or -9.7%. Days supply rose from 24.3, to 24.7. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were mixed across the board, with crude down -3.8M barrels; Distillates up +949K barrels; Gasoline up +1.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +1.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +736K barrels.

Despite the mix of draws, the total products is still +45.1M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slid from last week's $25.24, to $22.53. Gasoline at $13.19 from last week's $15.60. Distillates to $9.33, compared to last week's $9.64.

With the overall spread easing, gasoline inventories rose, and consumption seems to have levelled off.

Things can change in a hurry, but a continuing decrease in pump prices, seems a decent forecast.

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 4th Edition

It has been said that opinions are like a$$holes... everyone has one. The race has tightened, so pucker up!

Overall, Harris has taken the lead in national polling and the Electoral Vote count has tightened. Last week had the Trump count at 267, with Harris at 209.

It should be noted that polling data is severely lacking from non battleground states, as well as some battleground states. Realistically, only polling that began on or after 7-22, is considered. 54 polls of 15 states during that period, with 41 of those spread across just a handful of battleground states.

• Arizona - 5
• Georgia - 7
• California -2
• Florida -2
• Michigan -7
• Maine - 1
• Minnesota - 3
• North Carolina -2
• New Hampshire -3
• Nevada - 3
• Ohio - 1
• Oregon -1
• Pennsylvania -11
• Washington -1
• Wisconsin - 5

So a lot of wiggle room, although the race still favors Trump... as the path to a victory is wider than Harris' path. 

As for a debate, I suspect the Harris campaign is giddy with the recent surge in support, but as time wears on, the need for a debate will become clearer. Attempting to hijack what was billed as a Biden v Trump, and magically appear as a Harris v Trump debate... is not as easy as forcing Biden to drop out, imho.