2024 Presidential Election Update, September 7th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 80, with an edge favoring Trump at 61 and Harris at 19. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 59 days to go.

Harris slipped in Georgia and held steady in Nevada. 538 has Harris with a +3.1 margin nationally, whereas I have Trump with a +0.4 lead.

It should be pointed out that Clinton was polling a +3.9 point lead nationally, just before the 2016 election. Although it should be pointed out that she lost the electoral count, due to less than 100K votes in selected states. Also, Trump lost the 2020 electoral count also, by less than 100K votes in selected states. An election that had Biden leading in the polls by +8.4 points. 

It is the electoral count that matters. AS of right now... Trump has the edge. 

Next week brings on a debate. Doubtful that the polls would include results from after the debates... for a couple of weeks. 

In a boring stage of the polling, imho. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 5th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.9¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -50.3¢, or -13.2%. Days supply edged up to 24.0. For perspective... last year was 23.8 days.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down sharply -6.9M barrels; Distillates down -371K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.82M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -6.2M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.8M barrels.

Despite the draws, the total products is still +44.4M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slid further from last week's $16.37, to $15.60. Gasoline at $7.61 from last week's $8.92. Distillates to $7.99, compared to last week's $7.45.

With the overall spread easing, it is difficult to imagine the pump prices not edging lower, although Diesel may be nearing a bottom

I may be crazy, but another -12¢~15¢ on pump prices, for gasoline and maybe -7¢ on diesel.

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 31st Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 80, with an edge favoring Trump at 45 and Harris at 35. Thus, Trump at 290 and Harris at 248. 270 is needed to win. 66 days to go.

Harris has made inroads in Georgia and Nevada and narrowed the gap in several other states. However, that bounce may be over and we have entered a plateau for both candidates. 

Should be fun to watch, imho.

Review of July 2024 data, 2Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers continue to be a concern... going forward. 

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The 2nd quarter GDP was revised upward. I was puzzled by the statement regarding consumer spending and thus the headlines of resilient consumers. I would have expected consumer spending to be at or above the overall GDP announcement. 

But that is just me. It is an election year and important to convince the consumers... they are doing well.

Oh Joy!

This Week in Petroleum Summary August 28th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -3.7¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -35.3¢, or -9.5%. Days supply slipped 23.9. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down -846K barrels; Distillates up 275K barrels; Gasoline down -2.2M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -2.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +745K barrels.

Despite the draws, the total products is still +51.8M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slid further from last week's $18.67, to $16.37. Gasoline at $8.92 from last week's $10.08. Distillates to $7.45, compared to last week's $8.60.

With the overall spread easing, it is difficult to imagine the pump prices not edging lower, although there was a upswing today. 

I may be crazy, but another -12¢ on pump prices, both gasoline and diesel... seem to be in the offing.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- August, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following...

Despite the current similarities, the timeframe has a considerable difference.

I point this out, as while there were some similar causes, there were causes of significant difference, and the timing was different as well.

In any case, the inflation story has about run its course, or so we can hope!

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 24th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 229 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 96. 

With RFKjr seemingly dropping from the race in battleground states, the chatter is about where those votes might drop. The discussion seems to be the idea that 50% of those votes would ease towards Trump, and 25% to Harris.

If that were to take place, the Trump lead would move to 245~226. 

The question of Trump's under polling has cropped up in the conversation. This is due to Trump doing much better in polling for both 2016 and 2020. It is likely a factor, but will it extend to this election?

We will find out in 73 days, or whenever the count is completed and the lawsuits are settled.