2024 Presidential Election Update, November 2nd Edition

The Electoral Vote count stands at 235 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 77 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 71, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs.

However, the shift since last week, has been closing the gap. Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have fallen into MoE territory.

It will be a very long election night, stretching well into Wednesday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 30th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.2¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -35.9¢, or -10.3%. Days supply fell to 23.3. For perspective... last year was 25.5 days. 

Inventories were down across the board , with crude down +515K barrels; Distillates down -977K barrels; Gasoline stocks down -2.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +20.4M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.01, to $16.62. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.45 from last week's $8.74. Distillates to $8.17, compared to last week's $8.27.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -4.3¢ ~ +2.8¢. Take your pick. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 26th Edition

The Electoral Vote count stands at 264 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. Arizona and Georgia are starting to lean heavier into Trump territory, which would put the count at 291.

What is interesting to me... is the national vote count. It appears a possibility that Trump might win a majority of that vote. 

Contrary to what some people might believe... a majority constitutes 50% plus 1 vote of total votes cast.

Going back to at least 1828, indicates that the person with the majority of votes always wins the election... except in 1876, when Rutherford B Hayes won the electoral vote with 47.92% of the vote against Samuel Tilden's 50.92%. 

Not sure either of this year's candidates will receive a majority of the vote, but the potential for Trump to gain the electoral vote and the majority... does exist.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 23rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -4.1¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -39.4¢, or -11.1%. Days supply rose to 24.0. For perspective... last year was 26.0 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +5.5M barrels; Distillates down -1.1M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +878K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +25.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.29, to $17.01. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.74 from last week's $8.75. Distillates to $8.27, compared to last week's $8.54.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -2.3¢ ~ +3.1¢. Take your pick. 

Still, nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- October, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following..

I suspect the USA number, might edge up in the upcoming month, but while I will continue to track, this should wrap up the blogging portion... or not.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 19th Edition

The EV projection shifted this week, due to North Carolina shifting back above the upper threshold of margin of error and Arizona easing back into that upper threshold. The electoral vote forecast has Trump/Vance with 279 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 33, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 17 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 17 days to go.

Last week, I commented on the dems throwing everything including the kitchen sink, into the campaign. We are getting into ripping down drywall, and tearing out plumbing and wiring... at this point.

My electricity bills over time (October, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The September bill came in much lower than last year. -8.3% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is down -2.5% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy.